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Cologne vs Bochum Predictions

  • 17:30
  • Expired
  • RheinEnergieStadion
  • BT Sport 1

odds when tipped

odds when tipped

Tip Reasoning

Koln continued moving in the right direction on Monday evening, as they beat Magdeburg by three goals to nil in front of a home crowd. Friday’s hosts have now won each of their last five matches, while they’ve scored an impressive 21 goals in the process. If they can maintain such numbers, then it probably won’t be long before Markus Anfang’s men find themselves sat on top of the table.

Having seen Koln brush Magdeburg aside on Monday evening, it’s tough to see where they could go wrong in this fixture. The hosts have simply been operating at a level above other teams in the second division of late; they continue to create lots of chances when they play, while they’re giving far less away than they were earlier in the campaign.

When playing on their own patch, Koln really have scaled the heights since dropping down to the second division. They have of course had a few blips (who hasn’t?) but their recent form at RheinEnergieStadion is very encouraging. Last time out, they scored three without reply against Magdeburg, while they notched four against Furth prior to that and eight against Dresden before that. Furthermore, they’ve clocked a minimum of 2.39 expected goals for in each of their last four at home, while they’ve managed to hit at least 1.89 in each of their last eight in front of their own fans. Such numbers tell us that creating chances is something that comes easily to Friday’s hosts.

In contrast, Bochum have found it tough to create opportunities on their travels, while they’ve also struggled to keep teams quiet. The visitors are without a win in seven on the road, while they come into this match having lost away against Union Berlin last time out. Their performance on that occasion probably didn’t merit defeat, though it didn’t exactly suggest that they’d be capable of competing against a side as menacing as Koln.

What’s more, the overall efforts of Bochum on the road this season tell us that they lack the quality at both ends to get a result against Friday’s hosts. Robin Dutt’s men have failed to score in three of their last four on the road, while they’re averaging a measly 1.01 expected goals for on their travels. They’re surrendering 1.71 at the other end. Moreover, only once have the visitors outperformed their hosts in terms of expected goals this season.

At the end of the day, Koln are a much better side than Bochum, there’s two ways about it. Their run will inevitably come to an end at some point, but if we run the numbers and consider the prices on offer, then it’s very hard to oppose the promotion hopefuls.

The bet that stands out is ‘Koln to Win -1 Asian Handicap’. With an average expected goal difference of +1.23 at home, against a side with an average expected goal difference of -0.70 on the road, the hosts are backed to get the better of Bochum without too much fuss.

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