Famalicao vs Arouca Predictions

• Famalicao have the worst home record in the Portuguese league, managing just one win and four draws in nine games in their own turf.
• However, Arouca have only managed one away win in 10 attempts this season, at out-of-form Estoril last time out.
• Over 2.5 goals have been scored in seven of Famalicao’s last nine, and in six of Arouca’s last eight.

Ignore win markets when generous hosts meet poor travellers

Monday night’s Portuguese action presents a conundrum for punters, as a Famalicao team with a record of just one home win in nine attempts welcomes an Arouca outfit which has managed just one victory in 10 away trips this season.

If further evidence is needed to dissuade punters from the full time result markets for this clash, one quick glance at the form book should do it. Famalicao have only won one of their last eight games, losing on four occasions, while Arouca have only won one of their last seven games, losing five during that run.

With both sides badly out-of-form and mired in a relegation scrap, the goals markets look like offering a far more advantageous betting angle here. Over 2.5 goals have been scored in seven of Famalicao’s last nine games, and in 12 of their 19 league games this season. Arouca, meanwhile, have seen three or more goals fly in on six of their last eight outings, and in 12 of their own 19 Primeira League fixtures.

Back goals when relegation candidates face off

With neither team worth backing to win a crucial six-pointer, over 2.5 match goals looks to be the outstanding play. Only Tondela have conceded more than the 36 league goals shipped by Arouca this term, and Famalicao have themselves conceded just one goal fewer than Monday’s visitors.

Famalicao did lose 2-1 to Arouca earlier this season, but the hosts have managed seven league draws this season, more than all but one team in the division. An entertaining 2-2 draw, therefore, might represent a decent correct score prediction.

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