Finland vs Lithuania Predictions

• Lithuania have lost nine of their last 12 internationals
• The hosts have conceded the second-highest xG in this group
• Finland have kept one clean sheet since the start of last year
• Lithuania’s two September qualifiers saw both teams score, including a 3-2 loss to the Dutch

Finland to win despite defensive flaws

Finland’s World Cup hopes took a hit last month, as they suffered a 3-1 loss in Poland. That setback left them three points shy of the top two, with three qualifiers to do.

Defensively, Finland have fallen short through their first five qualifiers. The hosts have conceded the second-most Expected Goals in the group behind Malta. Their only clean sheet since the beginning of 2024 came in a 1-0 victory at Malta, where the Finns conceded 1.85 xG and faced six shots on target.

They should have enough to overcome a Lithuanian side who haven’t won since a 1-0 victory over Gibraltar in March last year. The visitors have lost nine of their last 12 matches, although they did fight back from 2-0 down to draw at home to Finland earlier this year.

Lithuania were beaten 3-2 by the Netherlands last time out, following a 1-1 draw with Malta. With the visitors in decent form in front of goal, back them to exploit a vulnerable Finnish defence, with the hosts claiming all three points.