FK Qarabag vs APOEL Nicosia Predictions

When APOEL go to take on Qarabag on Thursday evening, they’ll be looking for a first win of the campaign. The hosts will be hoping to keep themselves in the top two by securing a second group-stage win.

A reasonable start has been made by Qarabag, who’ve got three points after two matches in Group A. They were beaten by group leaders and likely winners Sevilla on match-day one, but they can be forgiven for that. Last time out, they made light work of beating Dudelange on the road, so the Azerbaijanis should come into this fixture feeling confident.

It’s probably a bit too early to judge either the hosts or APOEL. Qarabag were outclassed by Sevilla, as expected, and were too good for Luxembourg’s Dudelange, as expected. They did perform very well at home against Linfield during the final qualifying, but again, it’s difficult to take too much from that.

While Qarabag have won one and lost one in Group A, APOEL come into this fixture with zero points having lost both of their opening matches. They lost narrowly against Sevilla, acquitting themselves respectably in the process, but were disappointingly beaten by Dudelange, conceding no less than four goals on home soil. That result is slightly concerning.

When they faced Dudelange on match-day one, APOEL showed themselves to be useful in the final third, scoring only one less goal than Qarabag did against the minnows, but they were disappointing at the back, shipping four times as many. That said, if we dig a little deeper, despite what results suggest, both Qarabag and APOEL performed similarly against Dudelange. APOEL posted 2.05 expected for and 1.44 against. Qarabag posted 2.46 for and 1.25 against. Thursday’s hosts did slightly better in that respect, but there’s not a chasm between the two efforts.

As far as betting on this match goes, ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ and ‘Both Teams to Score’ are appealing. Both teams struggled offensively against Sevilla, who are by far the best team in this group, but they both showed attacking strength against Dudelange, scoring a combined seven goals. At the same time, they both showed defensive weakness. Ultimately, if we look at the respective attacking and defensive efforts of both in Group A, then it’s easy to feel that the chances of a relatively high-scoring game are slightly greater than the current prices suggest.