Fleetwood Town vs Walsall Predictions

Fleetwood did win at the weekend, beating non-league Alfreton by four goals to one in the FA Cup, though they’ve not exactly been flying in the league, as they’ve lost three of their last four. Now back on their own patch, Joey Barton’s men will be hoping to do better in front of the Sky Sports cameras.

When last in action in League One, Fleetwood struggled to live with an attacking Gillingham side, as they lost by three goals to nil on their travels. That match highlighted not only the fact that Joey Barton’s men aren’t amazing at the back, but that they’re still lacking in terms of forward productivity.

On their own patch, the Trawlermen have delivered some pleasing performances at times, but to say they’ve impressed would be an overstatement. If we look at recent results, then it would be easy to assume that Barton’s side have performed well at Highbury Stadium, though the underlying stats tell us that they’ve been somewhat fortunate to go three matches unbeaten on home soil. Overall this season, Saturday’s hosts are averaging just 1.26 expected goals for per home game, while they’ve given up an average of 1.4 at the other end. Hardly the most inspiring stats. Moreover, the Cod Army have managed to accumulate less shots on target than all but one team in League One when playing in front of their own fans.

Fortunately for the hosts, they’re going up against a Walsall side who’ve looked very weak at the back when playing on their travels, so even though they’ve not looked overly menacing in the final third, it’s easy to see Fleetwood doing well in the final third.

On the road, Walsall have played some decent football this season, while they’ve rarely failed to make their presence felt in the final third, as both the fact that they’ve scored in six of their eight away games and the fact that they’re averaging 1.57 expected goals for suggests. However, while their offensive efforts have been pleasing, Dean Keates’ men have been all over the place defensively.

Walsall are giving up an average of 2.15 expected goals on their travels, while they’ve kept just one clean sheet when playing away from the comforts of home, shipping a total of ten goals, which is a total that flatters them based on performances.

Based on what we’ve seen from this pair, especially in their respective home and away matches, it’s fair to say that Fleetwood have more about them in the defence third, though it is the visitors who look that bit more menacing in the final third. Add in the fact that Walsall have struggled massively to keep things tight, alongside the fact that the visitors have seen an average of 3.72 expected goals on their travels, and ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ catches the eye at the prices.