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France vs Poland Predictions

  • 15:00
  • Expired
  • Al Thumama Stadium
France
Poland
  • BBC One

France -1

Reason for tip

France looked fantastic in their first two games in Qatar, winning by three goals against an Australian side who made the last 16. Poland were uninspiring in a 2-0 loss to Argentina and they conceded 11 goals across four clashes with Belgium and the Netherlands in the Nations League earlier this year at a rate of close to three per game.

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France 3-0

Reason for tip

Poland have failed to score in two of their three games in Qatar and they’ve drawn a blank in three of their last five World Cup games. France scored six times in two games before rotating heavily in their final clash.

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Kylian Mbappe To Score Anytime

Reason for tip

Mbappe has scored three times at the World Cup and he heads into the knockouts as the frontrunner for the golden boot. The PSG striker struck twice at this stage in 2018 and he leads the side in shots on target so far, so back him to notch against a poor Poland side.

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France vs Poland Predictions

  • Poland have managed less than two shots on target per game at this tournament
  • France have won every last 16 tie they’ve played at the World Cup
  • Poland conceded 11 goals across four meetings with Belgium and the Netherlands earlier this year
  • Mbappe has scored three goals in three games so far and hit two goals in the last 16 in 2018

Poland have little to offer

The manner of Poland’s progression to the last 16 at the World Cup didn’t leave them with much neutral support, having barely participated in their 2-0 loss to Argentina knowing that they were going through thanks to their disciplinary record.

However, they’ve hardly been an inspiring side to watch all tournament. Poland have only recorded five shots on target in their three games at the World Cup, with 60% of those coming in their 2-0 win against Saudi Arabia.

With that record behind them and given their poor display against Argentina, do Poland have any hope of getting past France in this last 16 clash?

Quarters beckon for French

France may have went out at this point in the last European Championships, but that is unlikely to happen this time around. History does point to the champions progressing to the quarter-finals after France became the first title holder to make the knockouts since Brazil in 2006.

Since the Round of 16 was introduced in the 1986 World Cup, France have appeared at this stage on five occasions and progressed on each occasion (1986, 1998, 2006, 2014, 2018). The French have made the last eight at least in four of the last five major tournaments they’ve played in.

Meanwhile, this will be Poland’s first match in the knockout stages of a World Cup tournament since 1986, when they lost 4-0 to Brazil in the last 16. Their defensive record mixed with the French attacking options point to another immediate knockout for Poland.

Unstoppable Mbappe

Kylian Mbappe has had nine more shots (16) and five more shots on target (7) than any France player in the 2022 World Cup. He’s the current frontrunner for the golden boot after three games, having scored three goals in three games in Qatar. Just Fontaine (13) is the only Frenchman to score more goals at the World Cup than Mbappe (7), who scored twice in the Round of 16 in 2018 against Argentina. Back him to notch against this Polish defence.

France have great options outside Mbappe too, so they should overload a Poland side who could barely contain a lacklustre Argentina. Lionel Messi and co. took it easy at 2-0 up, something France showed they aren’t keen to do in their 4-1 win over Australia and a 2-1 victory over Denmark.

The Danes put in a solid defensive display to keep the scoreline down in that one, but they couldn’t stop the French. Poland don’t look capable of doing the same, having conceded 11 times to the Netherlands and Belgium in the Nations League earlier this year. The French should run riot in this clash and Poland’s blunt attack will have little answer, so back France to cover a -1 handicap, with a 3-0 victory my correct score prediction.

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