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Frosinone vs Cagliari Predictions

  • 14:00
  • Expired
  • Stadio Benito Stirpe

      odds when tipped

      odds when tipped

      Tip Reasoning

      Prior to last weekend’s defeat away against Inter, Frosinone had been ticking along quite nicely in Serie A, so they shouldn’t be too deterred ahead of this match. Having seen his side avoid defeat in each of their last two at home, manager Moreno Longo ought to fancy his side to get a result on Sunday.

      Frosinone were somewhat easily beaten by Inter last time out, but they can be forgiven for that result. For teams such as Moreno Longo’ men, results against the top teams won’t determine how they do this season. If Canarini Ciociari can get plenty of results against bottom-half teams, then then staying in the division will be no problem.

      As touched on above, it’s not worth judging the hosts on how they’ve fared against the better teams, but against teams outside of the top half, Frosinone haven’t exactly created the most positive impression, even on their own patch. Sunday’s hosts have taken two points from four home matches against teams that currently reside in the bottom half, while they’ve conceded a whopping ten goals in doing so. At the other end, they’ve scored four. In such matches, the hosts have averaged a respectable 1.52 expected goals for, but they’ve given up a worrying 1.87.

      Cagliari haven’t exactly done well on their travels this season but considering that they’ve faced mainly top-half teams, they’ve not performed too badly. That said, their two efforts against bottom-half sides weren’t overly impressive. Overall, the visitors are averaging 0.78 expected goals for, while they’re averaging 1.04 against bottom-half teams. Overall, they’re giving up 1.63 expected goals on the road, while they’re surrendering an average of 1.55 against bottom-half teams.

      It’s reasonably clear that keeping things tight at the back is not a speciality of either team, though such defensive weaknesses should make for a reasonably open, attacking game. The visitors haven’t thrived offensively on their travels, but they should be buoyed by the defensive struggles of their hosts, while Frosinone have looked useful going and will fancy themselves to get at a Cagliari back-line that has looked weak.

      With the hosts surrendering an average of 1.87 expected goals at home and with the visitors giving up an average of 1.63 on their travels, the bet that stands out at the prices is ‘Over 2.5 Goals’. Frosinone have made a habit of getting themselves involved in open, high-scoring games against their fellow lesser teams at home and it would be no surprise if this one followed suit.

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