Hamburg vs Greuther Furth Predictions

Prior to their game against Heidenheim, Hamburg appeared to be a in very strong position; they were top of the tree and were ticking along nicely, though after failing to win at Voith-Arena and having lost against Regensburg last time out, Hannes Wolf’s men are now looking up at Koln. Fortunately, Die Rothosen can regain top spot by winning in front of a home crowd on Monday evening.

On the face of it, Hamburg are struggling; they’re without a win in two and have dropped off their lofty perch. That said, their performances haven’t exactly been terrible, so we shouldn’t overreact to recent goings on. Monday’s hosts couldn’t take anything from their game against Regensburg last time out, but they were easily the better side and were thus unlucky to lose. The fact that they recorded 2.35 expected goals for and ended the game with a+0.55 expected goal difference tells us that they really shouldn’t have gone home empty handed. What’s more, when they faced Heidenheim prior to that, Wolf’s men created 2.41 expected goals for and conceded just 0.74, so it’s easy to say that they were desperately unfortunate not to come out on top. Results haven’t gone their way over the last few weeks but Die Rothosen will take confidence from the fact that they’ve played reasonably well.

In addition to some decent efforts despite results going against them, Hamburg have been very tough to beat at this venue. Monday’s hosts have lost just twice at home this season and are now without defeat at Volksparkstadion since September. They’ve since kept five clean sheets out of seven and have conceded more than once on just one occasion during that time. Moreover, they’ve conceded an average of just 0.98 expected goals since their last defeat on home soil, which suggests that they’ve not exactly been giving up plenty of chances. At the other end, they’ve averaged 1.43 expected goals for since their last home defeat.

While Hamburg have seemingly found it easy to avoid defeat at home in recent times, Furth have found it very, very tough to get their heads in front on the road. Monday’s visitors are now without a win in seven away matches, five of which they’ve lost. During that time, they’ve failed to find the net on six occasions.

Scoring goals is becoming a real problem for Furth on the road. They’ve found the back of the net in just six of their last seven travelling matches, while they’ve averaged a rather dismal 0.67 expected goals for during that time, so we can’t exactly say that they’ve been unlucky to find the net on so few occasions.

Not only have the visitors struggled to get going offensively on the road, but they’ve also done little to prevent their opponents from doing well in that respect. Furth come into this match having kept just two clean sheets in their last ten on the road, while they’ve shipping an average of 1.56 expected goals, which suggests that they’ve consistently conceded way more than they’ve created.

In truth, this is a big opportunity for Hamburg to resume winning ways. Up against a Furth side that struggled massively on the road, the hosts ought to get the job done. However, backing them to simply come out on top is not the best option. Instead, ‘Hamburg to Win & Under 3.5 Goals’ catches the eye at the current prices.

For all they do have the quality to get the better of a Furth side that is weak at both ends of the pitch, Hamburg, who’re averaging a rather modest 1.55 expected goals for at home this season, aren’t known for going mad on their own patch. Interestingly, five of their last six home wins have seen less than four goals go in.