Sweden vs Poland Predictions

• Sweden have won 10 of their last 14 home games
• Sweden beat Ukraine 3-1 in Valencia on Thursday
• Albania and Malta have outperformed Poland on xG in their last two matches

Potter has put the spring back in Swedes’ step

Sweden can build on their encouraging performance against Ukraine and claim a place at the 2026 World Cup by beating Poland in Stockholm on Tuesday. The finals in the USA looked a lifetime away for the likes of Alexander Isak and Victor Gyokeres during Jon Dahl Tomasson’s ill-fated reign, but their prospects have improved under Graham Potter.

The ex-Swansea and Brighton boss oversaw a 3-1 win in Valencia this week that showed what can be possible with a talented squad that can still add Isak before the summer. Tickets are already selling like hot cakes for Tuesday’s clash at Friends Arena and a showdown between two top marksmen – Gyokeres and Robert Lewandowski.

While Poland produced 17 shots per match in qualifying, their reliance on long‑range efforts and set pieces remains clear, and their latest outing exposed familiar weaknesses.

Polish players are struggling

Jan Bednarek’s early error set the tone in the 2‑1 defeat to Albania, while Tomasz Kędziora and Jakub Kiwior also endured difficult evenings. Matty Cash offered attacking thrust but repeatedly left space behind him, and Poland’s midfield lost too many duels before Piotr Zieliński’s superb strike briefly rescued them.

On the back of a 3-2 win against Malta in which the home side had a better overall expected goals tally than Poland, as Albania did on Thursday, their chances of beating Sweden look slim.

With home advantage and a more balanced side, Sweden to win looks the stronger play. Given Gyökeres’ current level and Poland’s defensive frailties, Gyökeres to score anytime is an appealing addition.