Hamburg vs Paderborn Predictions

Things continue to go well for Hamburg, who’re on course to achieve their goal of making a swift return to the Bundesliga, though it is important that Hannes Wolf’s men maintain the winning thread, as both Koln and Union Berlin are hunting them down. Paderborn are no slouches and have already got some positive results against multiple top-six teams, so this will be a good test for the league leaders.

Hamburg have impressed at times this season, while they’ve certainly not been easy to get the better of, though they haven’t reached the top of 2. Bundesliga by blowing teams away and playing attractive, expansive football. Five teams in the second division have accumulated more expected goals during the current campaign, while five teams have also taken more shots. In addition, six teams have taken more touched in the opposition box than Hamburg. That said, in the defensive third, Die Rothosen have been hard to fault. They current rank as the second-best team in the league in terms of expected goals against, while they’ve conceded the second fewest goals and have kept more clean sheers than any other team.

However, while Hamburg are one of the best teams in 2. Bundesliga when it comes to nullifying their opponents, they’re not exactly infallible, even on their own patch. Since Wolf took over around six weeks ago, Die Rothosen have played twice at home. They beat Koln, delivering a pleasing performance in the process, though they weren’t completely solid at the back on that occasion, while cracks started to appear when they drew 2-2 with Union Berlin last time out at Volksparkstadion.

As touched on above, Paderborn are a very good side, so the hosts will need to do better than they did against Union to come out on top. Friday’s visitors are one of the five teams that sit above Hamburg in the expected goals for table, while they also rank comfortably above the hosts in terms of both shots and touches in the opposition box.

As a more attack-minded side, Paderborn can’t quite match Hamburg’s defensive numbers, but what they’re a better side going forward, there can be no denying that. Even away from home, Paderborn have impressed greatly in the final third. Steffen Baumgart’s men have scored 15 goals in their seven travelling matches this season, while they’re averaging an impressive 1.85 expected goals for. The fact they’re giving up 1.69 at the other end is a bit of a worry, but if there’s a team in this division that can go toe-to-toe with Hamburg away from home and outscore the league leaders, then it’s Paderborn, who did just that to Koln earlier in the campaign.

It’s very easy to see why Hamburg are favourites ahead of this match, though it’s also not difficult to conclude that the hosts look too short. There’s a reason why Friday’s hosts are top of the table, but Paderborn are a very good side, a side that has already travelled to Koln, who’re just a point behind Hamburg, and returned victorious having delivered a completely dominant performance.

Quite simply, as the team that looks better equipped offensively, the visitors are well worth siding with at the prices.