Independiente Medellin vs FBC Melgar Predictions, Betting Tips and Match Previews

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  • Estadio Atanasio Girardot
Independiente Medellin

Tip Reasoning

Defeat at Emelec in the last round of Libertadores group stage fixtures plunged Medellin’s last 16 prospects further down the mire, leaving them desperate for the points here against the visiting Melgar. Failure to get them would leave them in deep trouble, with just one home game left to play, having lost the group opener 3-1 to River Plate in front of their own fans.

Meanwhile, Melgar are competing surprisingly well on the big stage, given that last year they crashed out in the groups with a shocking 6 losses from 6 games. The Arequipa based side managed to edge past Emelec 1-0 in their opening tie, and gave Argentine giants River Plate a scare in the last set of games, taking an early lead, falling behind, then levelling, before going on to lose 4-2.

Medellin’s struggles in the competition are quite surprising, as the side are doing just fine domestically. The side currently sit in 2nd place, having won 9 from 13. Despite said form, the title does look far away, with Atletico Nacional running away with things at the top, making their continued participation in the Libertadores all the more important if they are to have what they would class as a successful season.

Opponent’s in this tie Melgar certainly do not look like falling short in their own title race. They are having a fantastic season, topping the Peruvian top flight with a one game advantage over Sporting Cristal, having taken 19 points from an unbeaten 9 match start. That has them set to bury last season’s runner up heartbreak, and a good result here in the Colombian capital would go along way in the hunt to get over last season’s no show in the Libertadores.

All the pressure is on the hosts. They simply have to win at all costs. It’s sure to be a nervy affair, Melgar would be delighted with a point and the onus is on Medellin to play on the front foot and open them up.

The last 4 of Medellin’s games have ended in either 1-0 victories or defeats, and that’s something that wouldn’t be surprising here either. 3 of Melgar’s last 5 have seen under 2.5 goals being scored and given the circumstances under which the game will be played the under line looks an appealing bet.

As for the result itself, we think Medellin will have just enough in the tank to haul themselves back into contention. The return of Quintero is a huge boost and he will be key if they are to break down the defensive bus Melgar are likely to park in front of their own goal, knowing that a point will have them in the driving seat in the race for progression into the last 16. Back under 2.5 goals as the hosts run at 1-0 winners.

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