- San Siro
- Sky Sports Football
- Italy have drawn five of their last seven games after 90 minutes
- Federico Chiesa scored against Spain at Euro 2020
- Italy conceded in their final four games at the tournament last summer
- Spain have scored 19 goals across their last seven matches
Another nervy semi-final beckons
Italy edged it on penalties when these two sides met in the semi-finals of Euro 2020. The pair meet in a final four clash once again, as they lock horns in the UEFA Nations League.
The Italians are chasing a second trophy of the year, while Spain will be out for revenge after their defeat at Wembley. The two sides were incredibly close that night in London and it’s hard to see there being much between them in this one.
The Italians have been level after 90 minutes in five of their last seven – including three 1-1 draws – so a repeat of the result from Wembley is my correct score prediction in this one.
A night made for Chiesa
In a big semi-final like this its going to take a star name to stand-out, with Ferran Torres the most obvious for the visitors. However, the player I’m focused on here is Federico Chiesa, a man becoming central for both club and country.
Chiesa has stepped up in the absence of Cristiano Ronaldo at Juventus and he scored a brilliant goal to beat European champions Chelsea earlier this month. Chiesa scored two vital goals at Euro 2020 and he notched in a clash against Bulgaria for his country last month.
Italy have issues up top where the raw Moise Kean or inconsistent Ciro Immobile lead the line. That calls on greater input from their wingers, especially with the midfield trio of Marco Verratti, Nico Barella and Jorginho not exactly consistent scorers. Expect more from Chiesa as he grows into this side. I’m backing him to find the net against the Spanish once again.
Back goals at San Siro
Chiesa looks like a good bet to score for Italy, but the European champions also conceded in their final four matches at the Euros. They could struggle for a clean sheet again, given that Spain have scored seven goals in their last three matches, having found the net 12 times in their final four matches at the Euros.
The Spanish have also conceded to Sweden, Switzerland, Italy and Croatia in their last six. Only Kosovo and Georgia have blanked against them in that run. Both sides are beatable at the back against top quality opposition, so I’m making both teams to score my main bet for Wednesday’s encounter.
- 30 Oct