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Leeds vs Liverpool Predictions

Published on 7:00pm GMT 17 April 2023

  • 19:00
  • Expired
  • Elland Road
Leeds
Liverpool
  • Sky Sports Main Event

Both Teams To Score

Reason for tip

Leeds have seen both teams score in each of their last five games and the hosts’ defensive issues are a big part in their struggles this term. Things aren’t getting better on that front with the hosts conceding 10 goals in their last three games. However, they host a Liverpool side who have one of the worst away records in the league and who concede far too many chances on the road.

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Draw 2-2

Reason for tip

Liverpool are winless in five and they’ve failed to win at any of the sides currently below them in the Premier League this season. The hosts have lost only once in their last four home games and they can cause problems for the Reds, having lost only twice at home to sides outside the top four this season.

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Mohamed Salah To Score Anytime

Reason for tip

Salah has scored seven times across five meetings with Leeds in the Premier League, including a goal at Elland Road in this fixture last term. The forward has scored in four of his last five appearances for club and country and he’s a great scorer bet against a Leeds side who have conceded 17 of their 24 goals at home in open play.

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Leeds vs Liverpool Predictions

  • Liverpool have the fourth-worst Expected Goals Against tally away from home in the Premier League
  • Leeds have seen both teams score in each of their last five matches
  • The hosts have conceded 10 times in April, more than any other team in the top-flight
  • The Reds are winless away to any of the sides below them in the Premier League

Where do Reds go from here?

Liverpool went into the weekend 12 points shy of the top four, something which likely played a part in Jurgen Klopp’s reality check on Friday. After dropping out of the chase for £130million midfielder Jude Bellingham, Klopp compared their chase of the Borussia Dortmund star to a child asking their parents for a Ferrari for Christmas.

The Reds are in an awkward position as they prepare for a midfield tear-down, having admitted that buying premium talent is beyond them. They face an uncertain future as they enter into a rebuild, while in the short term, the Reds have clear shortcomings which continue to cost them in the league.

Visitors vulnerable on the road

Liverpool have managed just one away league win in 2023 and their record on the road this term is terrible. Only five teams have picked up fewer points away from home than Klopp’s side. They can’t even rely on results at the league’s weaker sides, as they’re winless in eight visits to teams below them in the table.

While Liverpool haven’t been converting their chances on the road, they’ve also had huge issues defensively. The Reds have conceded 24 goals across 15 away games this season, while their Expected Goals Against of 29.68 is the fourth-worst across the division. A failure to control games in the middle of the park is likely a big factor in that.

Leeds should be confident going forward against this Liverpool side, with the visitors conceding in four of their last five games. However, the relegation-threatened hosts can’t be too confident in their own defensive foundations.

Leeds reeling from Palace loss

After a 5-1 loss to Crystal Palace last weekend, Leeds have shipped 10 goals in their three Premier League games in April. While the scale of that defeat can be partly explained by the hosts’ desperation to get back into the game, defensive issues have been a long-running theme for them. The Whites have kept just five clean sheets in their last 35 league games, with only Leicester and Bournemouth conceding more than them this term.

The hosts have simply been pulled apart too easily at home, with 17 of the 24 goals they’ve conceded at home coming in open play. The Whites’ defence should struggle to contain Mohamed Salah again, given that the Egyptian has seven goals in five Premier League appearances against Leeds. He’s scored in four of his last five for club and country, so back him to strike at Elland Road.

However, Liverpool’s defensive issues mean they can’t be backed in this one. Leeds come into the game having seen both teams score in each of their last five games, so I’m backing both teams to score in this one alongside a 2-2 draw.


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