Mexico vs Ecuador Predictions

• Mexico have not conceded a goal in the tournament so far and have the joint-second lowest expected goals against
• Fewer than two goals have been scored in seven of Ecuador’s last eight competitive matches
• Nilson Angulo has scored three goals in his last six appearances for Ecuador

Azteca will be atmospheric

Estadio Azteca will be full and buzzing for Mexico’s round of 16 clash with Ecuador on Tuesday, but the fans could be kept waiting for goals by two well-organised defences. El Tri are one of only two teams yet to concede a goal in the 2026 World Cup after they recorded three straight Group A wins over South Africa, South Korea and Czech Republic.

Javier Aguirre’s side restricted each of their opponents to very few opportunities and emerged from the group stage with the joint-second lowest expected goals against. They scored six times across those matches, but did so from an expected goals (xG) of 3.5.

That suggests they have overperformed in front of goal while Ecuador, whose two tournament goals came from a 5.1 xG have almost certainly not capitalised on their chances.

La Tri have fresh momentum

La Tri were undone by a late sucker punch in their opener against Ivory Coast and came up against a world-class goalkeeping performance from Curacao’s Eloy Room in the 0-0 draw that followed. But Sebastian Beccacece was finally able to break out his Lambeau Leap-style celebration against Germany after goals from Nilson Angulo and Gonzalo Plata sealed a 2-1 come-from-behind win.

That victory injects some momentum into the South Americans’ campaign and they will be dangerous opponents for the co-hosts — even at altitude. Ecuador’s players are not unused to playing at high elevations such as Quito and they will know exactly how to prepare for the type of test they face.

Neither squad has any suspension issues and there are no significant injuries, so both coaches are able to select their strongest lineups. The key trend to note here for betting is that keeping clean sheets seems to override an ambition to score goals for both sides when the chips are down.

First team to score shuts up shop

Ecuador kept 14 clean sheets in 18 qualifiers and conceded only five times while Mexico have shipped only one goal across their last six competitive fixtures. Backing both teams not to score looks an obvious play in the circumstances, although the odds are well below evens.

There is value in backing under 1.5 goals in the match as whichever team gets the opening goal, should there be one, is only going to double down in protecting their shutout. Seven of Ecuador’s last eight matches have featured fewer than two goals and it would be a surprise if this high-stakes contest bucked that trend.