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Leixoes vs FC Porto Predictions

  • 19:30
  • Expired
  • ‎Estádio do Mar
Leixoes
FC Porto

odds when tipped

odds when tipped

Tip Reasoning

Tuesday’s hosts, who currently sit 10th in the Portuguese second division, knocked out top-flight opponents in the previous round, though they didn’t exactly do so convincingly, while getting the better of Tondela is undoubtedly easier than coming  up against the best team in the country.

Things haven’t gone too well for Leixoes of late; the second-tier side have won just one of their last five, while their performance when losing by a goal to nil away against Famalicao last time out was far from impressive. Fortunately, Tuesday’s hosts have done better on their own patch, where they’ve lost just one of their eight league matches during the current campaign.

When playing in front of a home crowd, Leixoes have been solid in their own division. They’ve only lost once, while they’ve won four of their other seven. Moreover, they currently boast a pleasing average expected goal difference of +0.61. The problem is that the club from Matosinhos haven’t played a team of Porto’s quality.

Since they’re the current Primeira leader, you would expect Porto to be strong on the road and that is exactly what they are. Tuesday’s visitors have won six of their eight away games in the top division this season, while they’ve only tasted defeat once. In addition, they’ve averaged 1.61 expected goals for, which tells us that they’re creative, while they’ve surrendered an average of just 0.74, which also shows that Sérgio Conceição’s men have prevented their opponents from offering too much of a threat. Such numbers bode well ahead of a match against lower-level opposition.

Given the disparity in quality between the two teams, it shouldn’t take too much for the visitors to come out on top, though they shouldn’t automatically be expected to run riot simply because they have more quality. For a start, Porto, who may rest some of their more important players, have made a habit of keeping things low-key on their travels this season. Only once have they scored more than three on the road, while their last three efforts in terms of expected goals for on the road, which read 0.57, 0.47 and 1.34 don’t exactly suggest that they’ll hand out a battering.

Again, the visitors ought to have the quality to win without coming under much pressure, especially since giving little away has been a mainstay of their efforts on the road this season, but if we take into consideration the numbers, it’s easy to feel that the bet is opt for a visiting win that doesn’t get out of hand and thus ‘Porto to Win & Under 3.5 Goals’ stands out.

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