Liverpool vs Aston Villa Predictions

• Liverpool have been poor at the back this term, conceding in every game
• Aston Villa have scored at least three goals in their last four games
• No Premier League side have conceded more goals to Ollie Watkins than Liverpool (5)

Defensive issues mounting for Reds

Liverpool may have won 2-1 at Newcastle last weekend, but that smash-and-grab has papered over some cracks for the Reds. They head into Sunday’s clash with Aston Villa having lost Virgil van Dijk to suspension, while the transfer window closed on Friday without an elite number 6 arriving at Anfield.

Jurgen Klopp is set to go with Joe Gomez alongside Ibrahima Konate in central defence. Trent Alexander-Arnold’s defensive vulnerabilities saw him listed as a midfielder in Gareth Southgate’s latest England squad, which isn’t a concern as Liverpool’s underlying numbers are even more alarming than their results suggest. The Reds have an Expected Goals Against of 4.94 this term, despite conceding only three times. Could Aston Villa be the side to expose them this weekend?

Villa can make a statement

The visitors opened their campaign with a 5-1 defeat at Newcastle, but they’ve bounced back from that with four straight wins. They’ve scored at least three times in each of those four matches, with Villa’s xG tally of 7.57 suggesting they’ve been good value for their eight Premier League goals.

The Villains offer plenty of threat, with Unai Emery deploying two aggressive wing-backs who burst forward to support a forward pairing of Ollie Watkins and Moussa Diaby.

The visitors have made a remarkable improvement in their build-up play this term, averaging 14.3 sequences of 10+ passes per game, up from 8.2 last term. Matty Cash’s second goal at Turf Moor last weekend showed their threat, as the right-back finished off a 19-pass sequence to put Villa 2-0 up within 20 minutes.

Watkins can strike at Anfield

The last time Liverpool played at home Bournemouth had the ball in the back of the net twice within the opening three minutes. In each of their three league games this term the Reds have had spells of overwhelming pressure from their opponents and Villa have the firepower to take full advantage.

Ollie Watkins heads into this clash having scored five times against the Reds, his joint-highest tally against any Premier League side. The forward has yet to score in the league this term but he has a European hat-trick under his belt and an xG tally just a shade under two, so he looks good to punish a vulnerable Reds’ defence.

While Liverpool have taken seven points so far their displays haven’t been good enough to back them for a win. The value lies with Villa here, who should be good for a couple of goals and they should return to Villa Park with something.