Lugo vs Deportivo La Coruna Predictions

Depor aren’t far away from being where they want to be, or rather need to be, but there’s still work to be done. José Luis Martí’s men are just a point outside of the play-off places, though after they dropped points last time out, they need to regain the winning thread. If they fail to win on Sunday, La Coruna run the risk of being four points behind with just three games to play.

Lugo also have plenty to fight for at this stage of the season, as they’re currently only a point outside of the drop-zone. Taking four points from their last two games has certainly helped Sunday’s hosts, though much like their visitors, they’ve got plenty left to do.

Relegation loomed large when Lugo were battered by Las Palmas a few weeks ago, but they’ve since recovered well. They beat Almeria when last in action at this venue, scoring four goals in the process, while they held a useful Gijon side to a draw last time out.

Away form has been the main problem for Lugo this season, though they’ve not exactly done well at home, as they’ve won seven, drawn five and lost seven of their 19 matches at Estadio Anxo Carro. They’ve not exactly been short of goals, as they’ve notched a more than reasonable 28, but they’ve struggled to keep teams at bay, conceding a total of 29.

In contrast, Depor have given little away on their travels. Sunday’s visitors come into this match having lost just four times away from home this season, which has helped them to put together the third-best away record in the division. The fact that they’ve conceded just 17 goals, which is the third lowest in the league, has also helped.

However, while they’ve offered a decent amount in the defensive third, Depor have struggled to get going offensively away from home this season. José Luis Martí’s side average just a goal per game away from home, while their average of only 0.87 expected goals tell us that they’re not overly creative.

If we were to go on league positions alone, then it would be tough to oppose the visitors, though when we dig a little deeper, it’s easy to feel that a bet on the hosts represents a slice of value.

Defensively, Lugo don’t match up to Depor, though at the other end of the pitch, their home efforts are much more impressive than Depor’s exploits on the road. Given that Lugo average considerably more goals for and expected goals for at home than La Coruna do on the road, coupled with the fact that the hosts have performed well against the likes of league leaders Osasuna at home in recent times, a small punt on ‘Lugo Draw No Bet’ is warranted at the prices.