Real Madrid vs Manchester City Predictions

• Real Madrid have knocked out Liverpool and Chelsea twice in the last two seasons and could do the same to City
• The Citizens are winless in their last four trips in Europe, scoring only twice
• Thibaut Courtois is overperforming his Expected Goals conceded numbers by the biggest margin of any keeper in the competition
• Real have gone over 300 minutes without conceding in Europe and should make life tough for the visitors

Can Real do it again?

Last year Real Madrid lifted the Champions League having seen off Chelsea, Manchester City and Liverpool in the knockout stages. Despite that success and their European pedigree, they are underdogs heading into Tuesday’s semi-final. However, they face City having already eliminated Liverpool and Chelsea in the last two rounds as they seek to complete that hat-trick for the second straight season.

Man City are being hyped up for a treble this term, but they went into last season’s Champions League semi-final as favourites. City were on their way to Paris until Rodrygo’s late double sent the tie to extra time, then Karim Benzema struck to send Pep Guardiola’s side home.

Real have proven time and time again they can’t be underestimated at this level. Having been priced up at over 2/1 at home in the first leg by bet365, the Spaniards are great value for another big European statement.

Hosts get cup boost

While City are chasing a treble, Real Madrid secured the first part of a potential double with a victory over Osasuna at the weekend. The Spanish giants lifted the Spanish cup on Saturday night after a 2-1 victory, with Rodrygo scoring twice to bring more silverware for Carlo Ancelotti and Madrid.

The hosts have proven themselves to be a brilliant cup side under Ancelotti, as seen in their brilliant European run last term. While they’re consistently written off, Ancelotti has been a steady hand at the wheel as the Spaniards continue to renew their side with an eye to the future.

Real have reportedly already got one over Man City, with the news breaking in midweek that they are in pole position for Jude Bellingham’s signature. He’ll join Eduardo Camavinga and Aurelien Tchouameni as the future of Real’s midfield, who will eventually replace Luka Modric and Toni Kroos.

However, one man in the middle to watch is 27-year-old Marco Asensio. The Spaniard isn’t being heralded as the future for Real, but he’s a great option right now. Ancelotti is using him well, having had a hand in a goal in three of his last four starts. He has also scored three home goals in the Champions League despite playing just 151 minutes, marking him out as a great option with City set to focus on Real’s high-profile forwards.

Back Real on the big stage

Manchester City head to Madrid looking unstoppable, but it’s worth remembering that Real’s recent faults have come in the league. This is a clash between two top sides where marginal differences can swing things. One thing to focus on is that City have won twice in their last nine away trips in Europe, going four without a win.

City have scored only two goals across their last four away and even with Erling Haaland up top they could find things tough this week. Real are on a run of three consecutive clean sheets in Europe, going 346 minutes without conceding since Mohamed Salah’s goal in the round of 16 first leg at Anfield. A big part of that is Thibaut Courtois, who is clearly overperforming in terms of Expected Goals.

The Belgian has conceded 20 goals from an xG of 29.9 faced since the start of last season, which is the biggest overperformance in the competition. Manchester City’s Ederson, meanwhile, has conceded 2.3 more than expected in the same span (16 goals from 13.8 xG). In a close game like this, those numbers from Courtois could be a huge factor. His heroics in last season’s final spring to mind and he could make the difference in this clash too.

This is set to be Pep Guardiola’s 10th semi-final tie as a manager in the Champions League. He has been eliminated at this stage in six of the previous nine. Real will know they need a home win in the first leg if they want to inflict another semi-final exit on him, so look to them to take the opening clash.

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