Mainz 05 vs RB Leipzig Predictions, Betting Tips and Match Previews

  • 13:30
  • Expired
  • Opel Arena
Mainz
RB Leipzig

odds when tipped

odds when tipped

Tip Reasoning

RB Leipzig are winless in their last four outings across all competitions (D1 L3) and were on the wrong end of a 5-2 scoreline against Hoffenheim at the Red Bull Arena last time out. Naturally, Leipzig will be determined to get themselves back on track in pursuit of a top four finish, especially against a Mainz 05 side struggling at the other end of the table. Timo Werner is expected to continue his partnership up front with English forward Ademola Lookman, who has worked his way into the starting XI since impressing off the bench in the 1-1 draw against Werder Bremen a few weeks back.

Mainz 05 will be no pushovers though, under pressure and very much fighting for their lives down at the bottom end of the table. Mainz’s 2-0 defeat in Augsburg last weekend means the 05ers are outside the relegation playoff spot on goal difference alone, so Sandro Schwarz’s men will look to draw inspiration once against from the home fans – the three points collected against Freiburg last time out at the Opel Arena was their first win since mid-February (W1 D4 L2).

In terms of betting, this one looks to be all about goals, and here’s why: firstly, the pre-match statistics based off RB Leipzig’s strong scoring, but poor defensive form in away matches favours a high scoring outcome with goals at both ends – in fact, both teams have scored in seven of RB Leipzig’s nine competitive away days in 2018, with over 2.5 goals being scored in five of these too. If that wasn’t enough, though Mainz are in relatively poor scoring form, no team has conceded more goals than RB Leipzig across the last five Bundesliga match days (13 goals, an average 2.6 per game). So with the 05ers finding the back of the net in all three prior meetings against RB Leipzig (see head-to-head), conditions are perfect for this trend to continue.

But how will this one end? Well, RB Leipzig have far more quality all over the pitch than Mainz, including prodigal-forward Timo Werner. Notably, while the 05ers have been in reasonable form at home in 2018 (W2 D2 L2), the hosts have lost each of their last three outings against top six sides at the Opel Arena – Mainz struggle to step up against the Bundesliga’s top talent (see statistics). Meanwhile, RB Leipzig consistently take results on the road to the Bundesliga’s weaker opposition, recording wins against, for example, basement sides Hamburg and Cologne earlier this season. Taking everything into account, Leipzig’s weak back-line should make this a fun one for the neutrals, but their offense looks to be enough to see them claim the three points. Our prediction: a 3-2 RB Leipzig win.

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