Mariupol vs AZ Alkmaar Predictions

AZ Alkmaar looked to have put themselves under a lot of pressure after drawing 0-0 at home to Hacken in the last round of qualifiers but a 3-0 victory in Sweden saw the Dutch side progress and they followed that up with an impressive 4-0 win in their first league game of the season against Fortuna Sittard.

Mariupol lost their first league game of the season but responded well by beating Oleksandria last time out and this is the Ukrainian clubs’ first taste of European football of the season. Thursday’s hosts have very limited experience of European football and are yet to qualify for the group stages of any competition, winning three, losing three and drawing two of their previous eight matches in Europe, so the odds are against them progressing any further now that they face an experienced European side like AZ.

The stats all point to over 2.5 goals being scored in Thursday’s 1st leg but despite being the form favourites we expect Mariupol to lose. The hosts have won three of their last six matches, while AZ have only picked up two wins during that same period. Mariupol have only managed to keep one clean sheet in their last six matches and AZ have scored seven goals in their last two outings so it appears unlikely they will be able to stop the Dutch side from hitting the back of the net on Thursday.

Over 2.5 goals have been scored in each of Mariupol’s last six matches, as well as in three of AZ’s last six, and the Ukrainians have lost two of those matches via the same 2-1 scoreline. AZ ended their four-game run without a goal last week when they scored three against Hacken and then followed that game with by scoring four at home to Fortuna Sittard, so it’s safe to say that the visitors will carry a threat in the final third during the 1st leg.

We’re confident that over 2.5 goals will be scored on Thursday and have predicted a final scoreline of 2-1 in favour of AZ Alkmaar. The visitors arrive on the back of two fantastic performances that have produced seven goals, and with the stronger of the two squads and more European experience you have to favour a win for the Dutch side on Thursday.