Monza vs AC Milan Predictions

• Under 2.5 goals have been scored in each of AC Milan’s last three games.
• The Rossoneri have posted back-to-back 1-0 wins after going seven matches without a victory in all competitions.
• Three of Monza’s last four matches have contained under 2.5 goals.

Milan find new formula

Milan hammered Silvio Berlusconi-owned Monza 4-1 in October, but Saturday’s reverse fixture looks unlikely to provide the same levels of goalmouth action after Stefano Pioli was forced to reinvent his side. A new approach has seen Milan record back-to-back 1-0 wins after enduring a seven-game winless run, and things look likely to remain tight when they visit Raffaele Palladino’s in-form side.

Indeed, Pioli changed to a back three for Milan’s meek derby defeat to Inter recently, but a variation on that system – now featuring Brahim Diaz and Rafael Leao, as well as young defender Malick Thiaw – has helped them to shutout wins against tough opponents in Torino and Tottenham. Having conceded 14 goals across a four-game span in January, the champions are looking to build a solid base, and less than one expected goal allowed in each of their last three matches suggests they are succeeding despite a raft of injuries.

Despite Milan’s confidence-boosting Champions League win over Spurs, they may not be worth backing outright against a Monza team with just one defeat in their last nine games – a Coppa Italia reverse at Juventus. Palladino’s men have seen under 2.5 goals scored in three of their last four matches including last week’s 1-0 win at Bologna, and they should remain competitive.

Low-key affair possible between old friends

While Berlusconi’s men have provided plenty of shocks this season, beating his former club Milan would no doubt be the cherry on the cake for him amid an impressive campaign. With Monza having enough about them to keep things interesting, we’re backing under 2.5 goals to be scored.

However, Milan’s superior quality could shine through in a 1-0 win – they have only hit the net 13 times in 11 away league games this campaign.

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