Morecambe vs Notts County Predictions

In all honesty, it’s not been a vintage season for Morecambe so far. The Shrimps find themselves in a lowly 19^th position, they’re out of the FA Cup already and have struggled for consistency. That said, Jim Bentley’s men have won each of their last two matches in the league, while they’re facing a side below them in the table, so they should come into this match feeling confident.

Since going down by a goal to nil against a useful Mansfield side, Morecambe have done well. Saturday’s hosts are now unbeaten in three in the league and have recorded pleasing wins against the likes of Yeovil and Forest Green. Their win at The New Lawn last time out should give them the confidence to come into this home match on the front foot.

When playing at home, Morecambe, though they’ve done anything but set the world alight, have been slightly better than you’d expect a side occupying 19^th position to be. They’ve played well at times, recording pleasing wins against Northampton, Macclesfield and Yeovil. Against the latter, they were fortunate, though the visitors carry less of threat than that particular opponent. A repeat of the performance delivered in victory against either of the first two would likely see the hosts do well.

Interestingly, the hosts have won three of their four matches against teams currently residing in the bottom half. In those four matches, they’ve scored five goals and have conceded three.

In contrast, Notts County, who’re currently without a permanent boss, have struggled on their travels regardless of who they’ve played. Saturday’s visitors have won just one of their nine away games during the current campaign, while the underlying numbers don’t exactly show the visitors to be useful. They’ve shipped an average of 1.93 expected goals on the road, while they’re averaging just 1.23 at the end. Such an average expected goal difference suggests that they’re failing to account for their defensive frailties by not getting serious enough in the final third.

Morecambe’s average expected goal difference of -0.07 is far from pleasing, though it’s much better than the -0.66 currently boasted by the visitors on their travels. If the hosts can repeat one of their better home performances, then they really ought to get the job done, and at the prices, they’re worth backing to do just that.

Bentley’s men are no certainties and they’ve had a habit of taking a few steps forwards and then a few backwards, though based on how they’ve fared overall at home, coupled with how Notts County have fared, they deserve to be a bit shorter on home soil and thus represent the slightest slice of value.