Orebro SK vs Falkenbergs FF Predictions

As each week passes, Orebro get closer and closer to dropping into the dreaded drop-zone. When they regained the winning thread almost three weeks ago, it looked as though they may have turned a corner, but Saturday’s hosts have since moved in the wrong direction. Having lost each of their last three, Orebro are just three points clear of the bottom three. Fortunately, a home match against the side that is currently bottom represents a good opportunity for Axel Kjäll’s men to bounce back.

Weirdly, what has prevented Orebro from already being in the bottom three is some useful efforts away from home. On their travels, Saturday’s hosts have won three, drawn one and lost four, giving them the sixth-best away record in the division. Unfortunately, they’ve not been able to replicate such form at home.

Orebro come into this game having won just one of their seven matches at Behrn Arena, while they’ve lost five of the other six. Scoring goals has been a bit of an issue, as they’ve scored only six, which is the second-lowest home total in the division, though their biggest problem is at the other end of proceedings. Orebro have conceded no less than 13 goals in seven home games. Only one team in the entire division has conceded more.

Fortunately for the hosts, Falkenbergs have floundered on the road this season. Saturday’s visitors are without an away win, despite playing seven times on the road. Of those seven, they’ve lost five.

Somewhat bizarrely, Falkenbergs haven’t been too poor going forward. In fact, they’ve done well, scoring nine goals. Only five teams in the division have scored more travelling goals.

As is the case for the hosts, the big issue for the visitors is defending, as they’ve conceding a very worrying 19 goals away from home during the current campaign. Unsurprisingly, no team in the division has shipped more away goals than Falkenbergs, who’re surrendering an average of 2.71 goals on the road and who’ve conceded multiple goals in five out of seven.

Given the visitors’ defensive record on the road and the fact that Orebro have the home advantage, it would be easy to side with a home win, though if we dig a little deeper, the hosts look far too short. At the current prices, ‘Falkenbergs Draw No Bet’ appears to represent a slither of value.

Orebro may have conceded less goals at home than Falkenbergs have on the road, but it is the visitors who’ve shown more in the way of forward power, while their travelling underlying numbers point towards them having a greater chance of success than the current prices suggest. Orebro have posted an average of 1.19 expected goals for at home and have conceded an average of 2.15. In contrast, Falkenbergs are averaging 1.65 expected goals for and are conceded an average of 1.69 on the road.