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Paderborn vs Schalke Predictions

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Paderborn
    Schalke
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      Paderborn vs Schalke Predictions

      No team has had more of a rollercoaster few years than Paderborn, who are back in the German top-flight for the first time since 2015 – they went all the way to the 3. Liga and back in that time! And the ride hasn’t slowed down since returning to the Bundesliga. Paderborn were on the wrong side of the second-highest scoring game on matchday 1 (3-2 vs Bayer Leverkusen) and they also failed to hold on to a 1-0 lead against Freiburg in their first home game of the season after that (3-1 defeat).

      Paderborn did, however, apply the breaks in their last outing before the international break, where they managed to take a 1-1 draw away from top six candidates Wolfsburg. Summer-signed Streli Mamba assisted the goal in that game and has done well to make the transition from the 3. Liga to the German top flight, having scored two goals in three games before that. Coach Steffan Baumgart will be hoping for more from him on Sunday.

      On the other side of the pitch is former Huddersfield Town manager David Wagner, who has been tasked with the huge rebuilding project at Schalke after last season’s 14th-place finish. His latest adventure has started well enough, having earned four points from three games, with only a defeat away to Bayern Munich being the only (somewhat expected) hiccup.

      You could argue the international break came at a bad time for him. His side finally found the right gear in their last outing against Hertha Berlin, where they took all three points in a comprehensive 3-0 win. Everton-loanee Jonjoe Kenny opening Schalke’s account with his maiden Bundesliga goal and helped them on their way to another shutout. However, with the other two being own goals, there’s still some work to do in terms of attack.

      Given the unknowns brought in by two new managers, it’s tricky to pin down any significant statistical trends for betting, but one thing that does look likely going off both sides’ opening games is that this doesn’t have the potential to be a particularly high-scoring clash. Neither side has been that impressive going forward over their opening three matches, with Paderborn and Schalke both averaging roughly 1 goal per game on xG (expected goals).

      Schalke’s squad has a lot of defensive quality to it as well and we should expect a defence-minded boss like David Wagner to get the best out of his back-line – Schalke have kept a clean sheet in two of the three games under his leadership and in four of their last six Bundesliga outings overall. This leans things even more towards a low-scoring game, given that Paderborn are man-for-man one of the weakest teams in the league.

      Notably, Schalke (16th) and Paderborn (13th) are two sides among those with the fewest shots on goal so far in the 2019/20 season too. Hence, expecting more than a goal from either side seems unreasonable. With Schalke showing more promise and having the strength to control the game, we do expect them to clinch it – they have won both their prior meetings with Paderborn too. Our prediction: 1-0 Schalke.

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