Portimonense vs Arouca Predictions

• Portimonense have failed to win five of their seven home Primeira Liga games in 2021-22.
• Arouca have avoided defeat in three of their last five away league trips.
• Portimonense have failed to score in three of their last four home games.

Home side have been outperforming their xG

Portimonense remain among the best away sides in Portugal, but they cannot afford any more home slip-ups if they are to maintain their challenge for a European place.

The visit of Arouca this weekend will be a good chance for them to pick up a relatively rare win in front of their own fans as the Algarveans have won only two of seven home games this term.

Whether to trust them at a price of around Evens is a ticklish decision because Portimonense have created very little in their last four league games, yet somehow managed to win three times. Their xG in the 3-0 away win at Famalicao was less than 0.3 and it was the same story when Aylton Boa Morte’s late goal stole the win at Moreirense.

Portimonense’s price too short  

Arouca appear set for a season of struggle as they don’t score enough goals, but they have drawn three of their last five away days and were unfortunate to lose 4-1 at home to Vizela in a pretty even contest last time out.

The value in this market is with the away side, but they are yet to win on the road, so we are going to play it safe with a double chance bet. Portimonense have failed to score in three of their last four home games, so there’s a chance of a 0-0 draw if Arouca get their fair share of luck.

Our preferred correct score forecast, however, is for a 1-1 outcome because Portimonense are conceding at a rate of just greater than a goal a game at home while Arouca have only one clean sheet in seven away games.

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