Portsmouth vs Coventry Predictions

When Marcus Harness notched after 22 minutes on Saturday, Portsmouth appeared to be in a promising position. After all, they were a goal up against a side that had looked lacklustre over the first weeks, though Kenny Jackett’s men quickly found themselves not just level but behind and were never able to recover. After losing in the north east, the south-coast side will be hoping that returning home allows them to bounce back.

In a game that lacked overall quality, especially in the final third, Portsmouth certainly didn’t do enough to warrant all three points last time out, though they weren’t quite poor enough to fully deserve defeat, as an expected goal difference of -0.14 suggests. That said, they ultimately paid the price for not doing anywhere near enough going forward, even if their opponents weren’t great in that respect. With players such as Harness, Marquis and Curtis in their line-up, Pompey really should have registered more than six shots, only one of which hit the target.

Fortunately, Portsmouth are often a different proposition on their own patch, or rather they’re just very good in front of the Fratton Park faithful. Not only did Pompey beat Tranmere on home soil a little over a week ago, scoring twice, conceding none and posting a pleasing 1.95 expected goals for in the process, but they also got the better of Championship Birmingham in the League Cup a few days before that. On that occasion, Jackett’s men scored three, shipped none, created 1.93 expected goals for and conceded just 0.55.

While Portsmouth have won one and lost two, Coventry go into match-day four off the back of two wins and a draw, while they’re yet to concede a goal. With seven points, three goals and zero conceded, it’s fair to say that Mark Robins’ men have made a very solid start.

A trip to Fratton Park is certainly something that many League One teams will fear this term, though Coventry won’t be scared ahead of Tuesday’s game. Not only are the Sky Blues unbeaten after three, but they also delivered a strong performance at this venue at the back end of last season. They lost by two goals to one on that occasion, but they caused the hosts several problems and were very unlucky losers.

Coventry did fail to beat Bolton on the road just over a week ago, but they were on top throughout, while they showed that creating chances is something that they’re capable of. Moreover, Robins’ men, who’ve conceded just three shots on target in three games this term, built on that by delivering a solid effort to beat Bristol Rovers by two goals to nil at the weekend.

In the early betting, Portsmouth are odds-on favourites, though there’s something not quite right about that. Pompey are very good on their own patch, but they’re highly unlikely to have an easy time against a shrewd Coventry outfit.

At the prices, ‘Coventry +1 Handicap’ makes lots of appeal. The visitors are bound to concede a goal sooner rather than later, but they look a solid unit all around and have more than enough quality in the final third to hurt teams. Add in the fact that Portsmouth come into this game off the back of a rather subdued effort and it’s not at all difficult to conclude that the visitors have a slightly better chance of getting a result than the current odds suggest.