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Portugal vs France Predictions

Published on 7:00pm GMT 5 July 2024

  • 19:00
  • Expired
  • Volksparkstadion
Portugal
France
  • BBC One

France to Win

Reason for tip

France may not have hit their stride yet, but the underlying numbers are promising. They are top three for shots taken and expected goals and top two for shots faced and expected goals against. Les Bleus have conceded just once in the tournament, and Portugal have failed to score in 210 minutes against Slovenia and Georgia.

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France 1-0

Reason for tip

Four of the last five meetings between these sides have produced fewer than two goals and 1-0 has been the scoreline in three of those. France’s two wins in Euro 2024 have been by this scoreline, while they have four clean sheets in their last five matches and Portugal have failed to score in their last two.

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Kylian Mbappe To Score Anytime

Reason for tip

Kylian Mbappe is the only French player to have scored in Euro 2024 and he has had 14 shots across his three appearances. He has generated 2.52 expected goals from these and can strike against the Selecao.

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Portugal vs France Predictions

  • France are top three for expected goals, expected goals against, shots taken and shots faced in Euro 2024.
  • Four of the last five meetings between these sides have  produced fewer than two goals.
  • Portugal have failed to score in their last two games.

Les Bleus better than results suggest

A heavily deflected goal in the 85th minute in Dusseldorf saw France claim a deserved win against a disjointed Belgium side on Monday and they should be able to reach the final four when they face Portugal in Hamburg.

Les Bleus certainly haven’t set the tournament alight like many expected, with two of their three goals being own goals and the only goal scored by a French player coming from the penalty spot, but you get the feeling it is only a matter of time before they spring into life.

Didier Deschamps side have generated 6.8 expected goals, a tally only bettered by Germany and Spain, while allowing a tournament-best 2.6 expected goals against. They are also top three for shots taken and second for shots against, which is an impressive feat considering the quality of their opposition so far.

They have faced the likes of Netherlands, Belgium, and Austria, with the average world ranking of their opponents being 15.25, compared to 26.5 for Germany and 39.75 for Spain.

Selecao set to struggle after extra-time outing

Portugal represent another tough test, but the Selecao were taken to penalties by Slovenia on Monday and have looked out of sorts so far this tournament.

They needed a late winner against Czech Republic and have failed to score in 210 minutes of action against huge underdogs Georgia and Slovenia, while some of the more veteran members of the squad may struggle to recover after the demands of extra-time, such as 41-year-old Pepe and 39-year-old Cristiano Ronaldo.

Mbappe can make the difference in Hamburg

All this points towards a France win on Friday, but neutrals should not expect many fireworks. Four of the last five meetings between these nations have seen fewer than two goals scored and France’s Euro 2024 outings have averaged just a goal per game, so a third 1-0 win of the tournament appeals in the correct score market.

Kylian Mbappe is the frontrunner to score that goal. He has had 14 shots in three games so far this tournament and has generated 2.52 expected goals. He scored from the penalty spot against Poland and can improve his tally on Friday.

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