Puskas Academy vs Vitoria Guimaraes Predictions

• Puskas Academy had some good chances to score in Portugal, but lost 3-0 in the first leg.
• Vitoria Guimaraes have had a tempestuous summer with the new club president unexpectedly sacking coach Pepa.
• Vitoria are without their star midfielder Andre Almeida through injury this week.

First-leg scoreline not a fair reflection

Vitoria Guimaraes’ tempestuous summer took a turn in the right direction last week when they earned a 3-0 first-leg lead over Puskas Academy in Europa Conference League qualifying. But there was actually very little between the sides in the game with only superior finishing from the hosts helping them to establish the handy advantage.

The Hungarian outfit’s xG figure for the first leg was, at around 1.3, not far off Vitoria’s 1.64 and they had only two shots fewer than the hosts with a roughly equal share of possession. It might not translate into a second-leg turnaround, but it does explain why Vitoria aren’t bigger favourites to follow up with another win.

Backing Portuguese teams on the road in European competitions should always come with a health warning anyway and the recent rise of Hungarian football, at least internationally, deserves some respect.

Vitoria linchpin missing from Hungarian trip

It’s also worth noting that Os Conquistadores will travel without their linchpin Andre Almeida because of injury while another midfielder who played in the first leg, Nicolas Janvier, is also out.

The value here is certainly with the hosts to take the spoils as Vitoria, under the direction of their former B team boss now, are an unpredictable lot. But if they can be as clinical in front of goal again then they should score – so a Puskas Academy win with both teams on the scoresheet looks like an outcome that may have legs.

A 2-1 home win is preferred in correct score betting as Vitoria, albeit last season under Pepa, conceded more than twice in only three of 17 Primeira Liga away games.

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