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Roma vs Villarreal Predictions, Betting Tips and Match Previews

  • 18:00
  • Expired
  • Stadio Olimpico
Roma
Villarreal

Tip Reasoning

The biggest result of last week’s Europa League matches was Roma’s fantastic win at Villarreal. Their 4-0 victory has effectively ended this tie, which was an amazing result against one of the best defences in Europe this season. That win has also had a big effect on the Italian side’s odds of winning this trophy, they’re now second favourites. The Serie A side are 13/2 to lift the trophy, just behind Manchester United. Surely that means they’ll have no problems qualifying for the last 16?

While you’d expect Roma to rest their stars after such a huge win, they have already been rotating in Europe this season. They kept a clean sheet in Spain without their first choice goalkeeper and with a changed backline, which just makes their win even more impressive. The manner of that 4-0 victory and the way in which Villarreal fell apart against the Serie A side both promise another comfortable result for the Giallorossi in the second leg.

While Roma can afford to make changes, they should still name a strong team. They have some good strength in depth, and they’ll want to ensure progression to the next round. It’s probably more likely for the away side to make changes, since they will now be expecting to be eliminated. On top of that, Villarreal are already in a tough battle to finish fourth in La Liga, they’re currently six points off the final Champions League spot.

To make matters worse for the Spaniards, they’re travelling to a team who have a 100% record at home in the league this season. They’ve scored three goals per game at the Olimpico in Serie A, while Villarreal have failed to find the net in 45% of their away outings. After Roma shut them out in the home leg, we aren’t expecting much from the Yellow Submarine, who are pretty goal-shy on their travels.

It’s hard to see Villarreal claiming back any kind of pride at all, given they’ve won only 27% of their away games in the league. They’ve picked up just three victories in 14 matches on the road, one of which was in the cup at third division Toledo. The Yellow Submarine have an excellent defensive record in La Liga, letting in 0.65 goals per game. That hasn’t been the case in the Europa League, as they’ve conceded two or more in three of their last five in this competition.

Given that Roma have won 15 of their last 16 home matches, bet365’s price of 8/11 for a home victory looks like excellent value. We’re backing them to continue their excellent run at that price, with Villarreal’s form pointing to home and away wins for the Giallorossi. Also, the Italians have scored three or more goals in 12 of their last 16 at home, so we’re backing a 3-0 win at 12/1 with bet365.

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