Scunthorpe vs Gillingham Predictions

When they recorded a pleasing win away against Bristol Rovers a few weeks ago, the Iron would’ve been hoping to go on a run and move up the table, though they’ve since gone backwards and are now back on a losing streak, a streak that currently stands at three. Having lost away at Shrewsbury in the FA Cup at the weekend, Stuart McCall’s men will be hoping to regain the winning thread when they welcome Gillingham to Glanford Park on Saturday.

After two fantastic seasons in League One, both of which ended in the play-offs, Scunthorpe may not have been among the favourites for the drop this season, but an exit from League One via the backdoor rather than the front is becoming a distinct possibility. Scunny are in trouble, there can be no denying that. To an extent, Stuart McCall has improved things, but the Iron are still struggling, as they sit just four points above the drop. Goal-scoring has prevented them from being dragged down as far as the bottom four, but even with their extra goals, a relegation dogfight seems inevitable unless they stop conceding so many.

Even on their own patch, Scunny have surrendered an awful lot, as they’ve shipped a worrying total of 25 goals in ten home matches. Unsurprisingly, no team in League One has conceded more home goals. In fact, McCall’s men are the only ones to concede 20+ goals at home during the current campaign. In addition, they’re shipping an average of 2.13 expected goals at Glanford Park, which tells us that they’ve certainly not been unlucky to concede with regularity. They’re averaging a respectable 1.64 at the other end, while they’ve only failed to score twice at home this season, but such numbers become less relevant when they’re giving so much away.

Gillingham are also struggling to keep things tight, especially away from home,  but they’ve not given as much away as Scunthorpe. That said, being harder to breach than Scunthorpe is nothing to be proud of this season. The fact that the visitors are giving up an average of 1.8 expected goals away from home is still worrying, while they have a worse average expected goal difference away than Scunthorpe do at home, thanks to a lack of forward potency on their travels. Steve Lovell’s men currently have an average expected goal difference of -0.82 on their travels, while Scunthorpe’s at home is -0.49.

In addition to the rather worrying numbers above, both Scunthorpe and Gillingham rank in the bottom five when it comes to expected goals overall, while they’re both in the bottom four when it comes to shots on target conceded.

Given their respective defensive problems, this is a game where both teams ought to be targeting goals. Neither Scunthorpe nor Gillingham will fear the other, so the fans at Glanford Park could be in for an open, attacking contest. All things considered, ‘Over 2.5 Goals & Both Teams to Score’, which has yielded a profit in six of Scunthorpe’s last eight home games, looks a bet at the prices.