Shrewsbury vs Fleetwood Town Predictions

Shrewsbury didn’t win on Boxing Day, nor did they win at the weekend, though they may not be feeling too downbeat ahead of this match. Sam Rickett’s men were far from outplayed at Crown Ground, while they did what many teams have failed to do when taking a point off high-flyers Sunderland at the Stadium of Light on Saturday. That positive showing should give the Shrews the confidence necessary to do well on Tuesday.

It would be easy to feel that Shrewsbury aren’t much of a side by taking a quick glance at the league table, though Tuesday’s hosts are not a team to be taken lightly. Rarely are the Shrews battered, while they’ve secured some very promising results against some of League One’s best. What’s more, the Shrews are very, very tough to take on at New Meadow. Only two teams have beaten Shrewsbury on their own patch this season, while Rickett’s men are now unbeaten in five at home, four of which they’ve won.

They’re not the flashiest side, nor do they often go out and score lots of goals, but Shrewsbury are very good at keeping things tight and thus creating more than they give away at New Meadow, which means that they find it relatively easy to pick up points. The Shrews have bettered their opponents in terms of expected goals in four of their last five on home soil, while they currently boast a pleasing average expected goal difference of +0.66.

Creating more than the other side is not something that Fleetwood have specialised in away from home of late. In terms of expected goals, Joey Barton’s men created less than their opponents in each of their last six on the road. Such a fact goes some way to explaining why the Trawlermen haven’t won away from home since the start of October. They’ve lost each of their last six travelling matches, scoring just two goals in the process.

It’s not as if the Cod Army have defended well on their travels of late, but their biggest flaw has been an inability to get serious in the final third. Tuesday’s visitors have created just 1.04 expected goals in their last 180 minutes of football, while they’ve mustered a rather poor total of 5.27 in their last six on the road. Shrewsbury have accumulated 8.49 in their last six at home.

All things considered, the Shrews have a good opportunity to come out on top here and backing them to do so at the current prices represents a smidgen of value. The efforts of Sam Rickett’s men at home have been far more impressive than the efforts of Barton’s men on the road, as the numbers show. With an average expected goal difference of +0.66 at home, against a visiting side that is averaging -0.31 on the road, Shrewsbury can kick-start their new year with a win in front of their home fans.