Spezia vs Bologna Predictions

• Eight of Bologna’s last 11 league matches have contained goals at both ends.
• Spezia, meanwhile, have conceded seven goals in their last three Serie A outings.
• According to expected goals against (xGa), Spezia and Bologna are the third- and sixth- worst defensive outfits in Serie A this season.

Strugglers meet in Liguria

Sunday’s Serie A meeting between Spezia and Bologna features two sides desperate for an early-season boost; the hosts have gone on a three-match winless run, conceding seven goals, since an opening-day win over Empoli. Bologna, meanwhile, remain one of the division’s seven winless teams. With both struggling to keep out the goals, entertainment is anticipated.

Spezia’s two Serie A defeats to date may have come at elite outfits in Inter and Juventus, but Luca Gotti’s men have struggled defensively – as shown by their underlying numbers. While only three Serie A teams have conceded more goals this term (and just one did so last campaign), Spezia have also given up the league’s third-highest expected goals against tally, average the fourth-lowest share of possession, and face over 18 shots per game, on average.

Bologna, then, should find a way to trouble the hosts’ rearguard, but the fact that eight of their last 11 games have contained goals at both ends demonstrates their own defensive shortcomings. Sinisa Mihajlovic’s team have Serie A’s sixth-worst defence according to expected goals, and have conceded 13 goals in their last seven league matches either side of the summer break.

Both teams can net with no value in results

While Bologna enter this contest as slight favourites, their winless start to the campaign makes it impossible to back them on their travels, so both teams to score – a winning bet in six of Spezia’s last 10 league games – looks a good play.

However, Bologna did complete a league double over Spezia last term, and have too much quality to go winless for long, making a 2-1 away win a decent correct score prediction.

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