Sunderland vs Barnsley Predictions

Lynden Gooch saved Sunderland’s blushes on Saturday when he pounced late in the day to recover a point for the Black Cats, who were 2-1 down away at Wycombe with just a minute of normal time remaining. On the face of it, 2-2 against the Chairboys isn’t a great result, but considering that Jack Ross’ men had a man dismissed in just the 23^rd minute, a share of the spoils was far from the end of the world.

Since dropping down to League One, despite sitting in 2^nd as things stand, Sunderland haven’t been overly impressive. They’ve certainly ground out a result on several occasions and have had a toughness about them, but they’re been far from imperious and haven’t often bowled teams over, as many have expected them to.

On their own patch, the Black Cats have been solid, but not outstanding. Being tough to dominate has allowed them to remain unbeaten, though they have been held to a draw in four of their eight home matches, while they’ve only kept one clean sheet. Ross’ men have scored in 100% of their matches at Stadium of Light, while their underlying numbers are reasonably solid too. The Black cats are currently averaging 1.61 expected goals for and giving up just 1.07. Such numbers would usually make them very easy to fancy, though ahead of a match against a Barnsley side that has been impressive, the hosts don’t exactly jump off the page.

Barnsley are currently two points behind Sunderland, though from a performance point of view, the Tykes have stood far more than Tuesday’s hosts. Daniel Stendel’s men are arguably the best footballing side in the division, while they’re also one of the most threatening in possession and one of the best at nullifying their opponents. As things stand, no team has given away less expected goals than Barnsley, while they rank 4^th in terms of expected goals for.

While Barnsley rank 4^th in terms of expected goals for, the hosts rank as low as 22^nd, which may seem surprising, given the fact that they’re currently 2^nd in the table.

Barnsley’s overall numbers on the road are much the same as Sunderland’s at home; they’re averaging 1.65 expected goals for and are giving up just 1.08 at the other end, though it is the visitors who look the more capable side. The way that Stendel’s men recently went away and beat a very good Accrington side by two goals to nil, emerging with an expected goal supremacy of +1.71, suggests that they could make plenty of headway at Stadium of Light on Tuesday evening.

Furthermore, the way Sunderland got on against the likes of Peterborough, Rochdale and Fleetwood at home doesn’t exactly match up well to the way Barnsley got on against the same teams away from home. Against the above trio at home, Sunderland took five points, while they clocked a combined expected goal supremacy of +1.46. Against the same trio on the road, Barnsley accumulated nine points and recorded a combined expected goal supremacy of 3.29.

Whichever way we look at it, it’s hard to not be far more impressed with the Tykes than the Black Cats, so it is the visitors who’re backed on this occasion. Stendel’s men have more about them in terms of creativity and they’re fancied to put that to good use.