Tranmere vs Southport Predictions

Tranmere were well and truly put in their place by Grimsby on Tuesday night, as they were thumped by five goals to two. Such a defeat isn’t the ideal preparation ahead of a potential banana-skin FA Cup tie, though Micky Mellon’s men ought to fancy their chances of getting better of non-league opponents on their own patch. That said, they failed to do just that in the last round, so, as the saying goes, anything is possible.

Tranmere found themselves on the end of a battering last time out, but it’s important not to divert from the fact that they’ve taken well to League Two this season, while their performances at home have been pleasing. In front of their own fans, Mellon’s side have lost just once, while they’ve won six of their other nine games at Prenton Park.

The bare form figures read well, but what do the underlying numbers say? Tranmere are averaging 1.52 expected goals on their own patch, while they’re giving up just 0.88, which is particularly impressive.

In contrast, Southport haven’t exactly thrived in their own division this season. Sunday’s visitors currently sit in 18^th position in the National League North, while they’ve often struggled on the road. That said, the performances of Liam Watson’s men on their travels have improved of late and they’ve now recorded three consecutive wins on the bounce away from home.

With this being a huge FA Cup tie for the visitors, they’re unlikely to lack either belief or attacking endeavour, but they are going to have to be at their very best to trouble a home back-line that has given just four goals away in ten League Two matches at Prenton Park this season.

From a betting point of view, the eye-catcher is ‘Tranmere to Win & Under 3.5 Goals’. From an overall quality point of view, Rovers ought to have too much about them in front of their own fans, and it is tough to get away from the encouraging figures that they’ve posted when playing at this venue.

However, it’s not like Tranmere have battered teams at home. Only once have Sunday’s hosts scored more than once at Prenton Park and it’s fair to say that they’ve adopted a more pragmatic, controlled approach. Such a style should allow them to keep things tight against inferior opposition and given their average of 1.52 expected goals for in their own division, Micky Mellon’s men ought to have what it takes to capitalise at the other end.