TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburg Predictions & Betting Tips, Match Previews

Julian Nagelsmann’s Hoffenheim have been causing teams all kinds of problems with their fluid 3-5-2 formation and held even champions Bayern Munich to a 1-1 draw away at the Allianz Arena last time out. Hoffenheim are just one of three sides, alongside Munich and RB Leipzig, to remain unbeaten since the start of the season and with four wins and a draw over the last 5 Bundesliga matches, they’re the second most in-form side in the German top flight.

Hamburg’s form and fortunes could barely be further from that of Hoffenheim’s ahead of this fixture. Hamburg are still without a win after 10 matches (D2 L8) – the “ever-present” Bundesliga side’s worst ever start to a new campaign – and remained bottom of the table after a humiliating 5-2 defeat at home to Borussia Dortmund last time out. Before that, back-to-back defeats against Eintracht Frankfurt and Cologne has seen Hamburg left frustrated and it has showed. Striker Bobby Wood, who has scored half of Hamburg’s meager four goals so far, is unavailable for selection here. He received a straight red and three match ban for elbowing Cologne’s Dominique Heintz, unprovoked, two matches back.

Hoffenheim are the bookies’ favourites at 8/13 ahead of this match. While this isn’t a bad price given both side’s respective forms, and we’d certainly be tempted to add them into an accumulator, there’s better value to be had in a bet on under 2.5 goals for the following reasons: we can’t honestly expect Hamburg, who are the lowest scoring team in the Bundesliga (4 goals total), to be able to turn their goal drought around without their main striker Bobby Wood. Hamburg have failed to score in 7 of their 10 Bundesliga matches so far (70%) and, most notably, in all four of their most recent away matches. Hamburg just can’t hit the back of the net on the road and their low attempts on target have seen under 2.5 goals scored in three of of their last four (75%) away matches – one 1-0 defeat, one 2-0 defeat and one 0-0 draw.

While Hoffenheim are clearly the better side in terms of form, it must be noted that they’re not exactly “goal machines” in the same sense as say Borussia Dortmund. Hoffenheim score enough goals and with efficiency; their total 18 goals over 10 matches is only one more than 10th placed Mainz 05 and Hoffenheim have only scored more than two goals twice this season, both of which came on the road (a 3-0 win away to Bayer Leverkusen and a 4-4 away to Mainz). As such, combining Hamburg’s goal draught on the road with Hoffenheim’s modest 1.8 goals per match average we feel that a correct score bet of Hoffenheim 2-0 at 8/1 is also a decent shout here.