Valencia vs Ebro Predictions

Things haven’t exactly gone swimmingly for Valencia over the last week or so, though defeats on the road against Juventus and Real Madrid can be forgiven, especially since the Bats had won three on the bounce previously. Having beaten Ebro by two goals to one away from home in the first leg, Marcelino’s men will fancy themselves to get the job done on home soil.

Having faced two big teams on the trot, this is a good opportunity for Valencia to bounce back. Third-tier side Ebro weren’t disgraced when losing 2-1 in the first leg, but they hardly got competitive in the final third, while Valencia eased to victory in second gear. Back in front of their own fans, the Bats can deliver a more commanding victory.

In the league this season, Valencia have delivered some very strong performances at Mestalla Stadium. Marcelino’s side have lost just one of their seven home games in the Spanish top flight, while their underlying numbers are also encouraging. The Bats are averaging a respectable 1.56 expected goals at home, while the fact that they’re shipping just 0.8 on average is very impressive.

In contrast, Ebro haven’t exactly been flying when playing away from home at their own level. Tuesday’s visitors have won just two of their eight travelling matches in the third division, while they’re averaging just 125 expected goals for at that level. Moreover, the fact that they’re giving away an average of 1.48 against third-tier teams doesn’t exactly suggest that they’ll be capable of going to Mestalla and keeping the Bats quiet.

Furthermore, Valencia have a pleasing home record in this competition. Prior to their defeat against Barcelona last season, the Bats had won four three home games on the bounce in the Copa del Rey, scoring a total of ten goals, while since 2012, they have a 100% home record against lower-level teams.

From a betting point of view, ‘Valencia to Score Over 3.5 Goals’ stands out. Marcelino’s men haven’t always found it easy to be in free-flowing scoring form at home this season, but they looked very useful when notching three against Rayo Vallecano in their most recent home match. A repeat of that performance against inferior third-tier opponents would likely see the Bats runs riot in front of their own fans.