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Zamora vs Gremio Predictions, Betting Tips and Match Previews

  • 22:30
  • Expired
  • Estadio Rafael Agustín Tovar

Tip Reasoning

Venezuelan champions Zamora will be looking to shake off the whipping boys tag in this year’s edition of the Libertadores.  The Barinas based side have a truly awful recent record in the competition. In 2015 they lost all 6 games in a group containing Boca, Palestino and Wanderers. Of those three sides you can only consider Boca as real big hitters, but Zamora still managed to concede an astounding 21 goals, an average of 3.5 a game. Some confidence may will be taken from last season’s league win, but performances are going to have to seriously improve if they are to avoid another series of heavy defeats.

On the domestic front, Zamora have made a decent start to their title defence. They currently lie second in the Apertura phase, 3 points behind Deportivo Lara but with a game in hand. From the 6 games contested, the side have picked up 11 points. El Blanquinegro haven’t been in action since February 27th, when they picked up 3 points in a 1-0 home win over Estudiantes Merida.

The name of Gremio carries far more prestige, with the side having won the Libertadores twice. The latter of that double came in 1995, with a 2007 runners up medal the best effort since. In last year’s competition they collected 11 points in a group containing Toluca, San Lorenzo and LDU Quito, before going out in the last 16, 4-0 over aggregate to Rosario Central. They will be looking to make up for that heavy defeat with a better performance in this year’s effort.

Over the last transfer window Gremio lost defensive midfielder Wallace in a big money move to Hamburg. He was the only departure of real note and coming in are a number of talented players, including ex Dortmund front man Lucas Barrios. The team looks very strong, particularly in attacking areas and can be confident of a good season both on the domestic and continental front. While their top flight campaign has not begun, Gremio have been involved in two local tournaments, namely the Gaucho State League and the Primeira Liga. Performances have been mixed with the side picking up 3 wins and 3 draws, but losing 2. Their last action came at the weekend, in which they drew 2-2 at home to now second tier Internacional.

Gremio will be looking to assert early dominance over a group they are expected to win. Deportes Iquique, Guarani and Zamora themselves shouldn’t have enough to trouble the Brazilian giants’ qualification hopes.  They possess by far the most talented squad in the group and look set for a good run in the competition.

The odds on the away side look very appealing. While they may be a force back home, Zamora have been anything but on the big stage. Brazilian football is almost incomparable with that of Venezuela, the disparity in finance and playing quality is vast and when you look at it that way this is a real David v Goliath clash.

Goliath’s price at over evens is very generous and one that simply has to be taken. It’s going to take a very bad showing from the visitors, and for home players to play out of their skins for this to end in anything but an away win. While we don’t think Zamora will be hammered quite as heavily as they were so often in 2015, we do feel the likes of Luan, Miller Bolanos and Lucas Barrios will have too much quality in the end and will secure Gremio an early three points. We are backing Gremio on the -0.5 handicap, as it is paying slightly more than Gremio on the full time market, for what is the same bet.

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