35/1 Champions League Last 16 Accumulator
Before becoming a Sports Journalist for Free Super Tips, Aaron spent three years studying Sports Journalism at the University of Sunderland while taking in the Black Cats' 'glory years' under Martin O'Neill. Now back in Northern Ireland he turns niche stats into predictions for FST, while he's one of the few people on this island who is equally comfortable at Windsor Park and the Aviva.
The final Champions League draw of the season was made on Friday, laying out the bracket for the knockout stages now that we’re down to only 16 teams.
Half of the ties in the next round feature heavy favourites, with Arsenal, Bayern Munich, Liverpool, and Barcelona all heavily odds-on to make the quarter-finals. However, the other four ties appear more balanced, so I’ve put together a 35/1 accumulator on the to qualify market.
UCL Last 16 Acca
Real Madrid vs Manchester City
Real Madrid to qualify
These two sides are meeting on a fairly regular basis in Europe now, with City winning 2-1 when the pair met in the League Phase in December. However, Real have had the edge in knockout clashes, as they prepare to lock horns for the fifth straight season.
City have only taken down Real once across the last four campaigns, when they won 5-1 on aggregate on their way to a maiden European crown in 2023.
Real returned the favour in 2024 en route to lifting the trophy at Wembley. Last season was far from a vintage year for either side, but the Spanish outfit won 6-3 on aggregate with home and away victories in the play-off round.
Guardiola’s City have been knocked out in the quarter-finals or earlier in six of nine seasons, and they’re not facing the same Real side that they beat last winter. Alvaro Arbeloa has given the stars more freedom, and that has brought eight wins in their last 10 games.
City’s improved season has relied on having arguably the world’s best goalkeeper and centre-forward, but Thibaut Courtois and Kylian Mbappe can stake a claim to those mantles. The level of talent on both sides should make this tie closer, so Real look overpriced at 2/1.
PSG vs Chelsea
PSG to qualify
After the needle between these two sides in the Club World Cup final, the two clashes between these sides should be tense. PSG have been showing signs of fatigue after that long summer straight off the back of their Champions League run, but the animosity generated by that clash in New Jersey could galvanise them here.
While Chelsea were comfortable winners last summer, Enzo Maresca’s tactical tweaks were key in that victory. Months on, and the Blues look to have gone backwards.
The European champions eliminated Liverpool, Aston Villa, and Arsenal on their way to the final last season, so back them to take out another English side.
Bodo/Glimt vs Sporting
Bodo/Glimt to qualify
Sporting claimed wins over PSG and Athletic Bilbao in January to jump into the top eight, but they’re probably the weakest of the eight sides that skipped the Play-off round.
It’s clear that Sporting have regressed from their position domestically, as they’re trailing Porto in the Primeira Liga. They outperformed their Expected Goals tally by the second-largest margin of any side in the League Phase, which suggests they were fortunate to finish so high in the standings.
Since their 2-2 draw at Borussia Dortmund in December, Bodo have won four straight European games. Those victories include visits to Atletico Madrid and Inter Milan, so they’re worth siding with against Sporting. The Norwegians made it to the last four of the Europa League last season, and their brilliant displays suggest they can make another run in Europe.
Atletico Madrid vs Tottenham
Tottenham to qualify
While Tottenham are facing a relegation battle domestically, they finished fourth in the League Phase. Their only defeat was a 5-3 reverse at PSG, while they finished with a perfect record at home, winning all four games.
Spurs beat Villarreal, La Liga’s third-placed side, in September. They are underdogs for their last 16 tie with Atletico Madrid, but Diego Simeone’s team are trading off past glories.
In the last eight seasons, Atleti have made three quarter-final appearances in this competition, never going further. Their success against Club Brugge was only their third knockout success since 2020, along with a penalty shoot-out win over Inter Milan in 2024 and a 2-1 aggregate victory over Manchester United in 2022.
Atletico lost to Liverpool and Arsenal in the League Phase, and English sides physically dominating European opponents has been a theme of the campaign. Little about Atleti’s results this season suggests they’re a side to fear in Europe, so this could be an opportunity for Spurs to add some joy to a gloomy year.
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