Champions League outright predictions with 7/1, 12/1, & 150/1 selections
Before becoming a Sports Journalist for Free Super Tips, Aaron spent three years studying Sports Journalism at the University of Sunderland while taking in the Black Cats' 'glory years' under Martin O'Neill. Now back in Northern Ireland he turns niche stats into predictions for FST, while he's one of the few people on this island who is equally comfortable at Windsor Park and the Aviva.
PSG are among the favourites to lift the Champions League trophy after storming to European glory earlier this year.
The 36-team field for this season’s competition was confirmed this week, along with the fixtures for the second edition of the Swiss model first phase.
The bookies have a top-tier of six sides, who are each priced at 9/1 or shorter. However, PSG were the fifth side in seven seasons to lift the trophy after starting the campaign priced in double-figures.
Champions League outright betting odds
- Liverpool – 6/1
- Barcelona – 6/1
- PSG – 13/2
- Arsenal – 7/1
- Real Madrid – 8/1
- Man City – 9/1
*odds via bet365 and correct as of August 31st
Best Bet – Arsenal at 7/1
Mikel Arteta’s boasts after their semi-final exit to PSG were widely mocked, but it’s worth remembering that the Gunners reached the last four with key names missing.
This summer’s spending has given Arsenal a deep squad, but questions remain over Arteta’s style of play. The Gunners’ conservative approach could cost them over the course of a league season, but it suits tense European ties.
Arteta’s side have improved year-on-year in both the league and Champions League. Last term, they won six of eight League Phase games, conceding only three times. Their demolition of Real Madrid in the quarter-finals reflected just how good they can be.
The Gunners have the strongest midfield of any Premier League side. That’s an area that Real haven’t addressed, while Arsenal’s style should suit playing against a Barcelona side that borders on reckless.
This summer’s business has left Arsenal with one of the deepest squads in world football. They’ve got the defensive discipline to navigate difficult ties, while they now have multiple game-changing options in attack. Arteta has also taken to European football with ease, leaving his side well-placed to go all the way.
Best of the rest – Chelsea at 12/1
Beyond the six favourites, it’s hard to find many serious contenders. Bayern Munich and Chelsea are 12/1 shots. The field beyond them is priced at 25/1 or higher, and each of those sides have significant question marks.
Bayern’s starting 11 puts them in the mix, but Harry Kane recently labelled their squad as one of the thinnest he’s ever been in. In an extended European season, following on from their Club World Cup campaign, that should tell.
Club World Cup winners Chelsea had some luck in the summer, with a kind draw taking them to the final. However, they thumped Champions League winners PSG 3-0, with Enzo Maresca’s tactical tweaks downing the French outfit.
Like Arteta, Maresca’s approach appears better suited to cup competitions, rather than the Premier League. The Blues won’t meet many sides in the business end of the Champions League who set out to nullify them in the way Crystal Palace did in their opener.
European football should offer more space for Chelsea’s impressive attacking options. Behind them, the Blues have plenty of strength in depth across midfield and defence.
Goalkeeper remains an obvious weakness, but Maresca’s controlled approach aims to cancel that out by reducing the chances they concede. The Blues are building a strong track record in knockout competitions, while they have a squad which can at least rival the main favourites for this competition.
Long shot stand out – Galatasaray at 150/1
There are too many elite sides at the top of the betting to expect a three-figure winner, but a long-shot could force their way into the latter stages. In my Europa League preview last season, I backed Rangers at 100/1 before their run to the last eight. Galatasaray are a similar standout in this season’s Champions League.
The Turkish champions have a squad capable of matching many of the sides above them in the betting. This summer they completed a permanent move for Victor Osimhen, Leroy Sane joined from Bayern Munich, while they just poached defender Wilfried Singo from a Monaco side who are half their price in the betting.
Galatasaray have a real home advantage, given their atmosphere and the distance sides have to travel. Trips to Eintracht Frankfurt, Ajax, and Monaco in the League Phase aren’t easy, but Galatasaray will see those games as winnable.
After winning the Super Lig in each of the last three seasons, Galatasaray are looking to take the next step. There’s little doubt they have the attacking options to compete in Europe. Their 150/1 price reflects a lack of European progress of late, but they could be primed for a breakout year. If that happens, their price should tumble over the course of the season.
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