Experts' best outright bets for the 2026 World Cup
Before becoming a Sports Journalist for Free Super Tips, Aaron spent three years studying Sports Journalism at the University of Sunderland while taking in the Black Cats' 'glory years' under Martin O'Neill. Now back in Northern Ireland he turns niche stats into predictions for FST, while he's one of the few people on this island who is equally comfortable at Windsor Park and the Aviva.
The start of the 2026 World Cup is days away, and with an almost endless list of outright markets to choose from, picking your pre-tournament bets can be tricky.
We’ve taken some of the best selections from our World Cup team guides, and we’ve also called in some backup from the Racing Post to line up six standout bets ahead of the opener on Thursday.
Experts’ Best Outright Bets
Alex Wrigley
Mexico to reach the last 16 at 10/11 with bet365
Mexico made the round of 16 in seven successive World Cups between 1994 and 2018 and, while they failed to escape a difficult group in Qatar four years ago, the co-hosts can make a return this time around.
El Tri have won two Concacaf Gold Cup titles since then and, with 42 per cent of their squad based domestically, they should be well acclimated to the high-altitude stadiums in Mexico. Should they live up to their favouritism and top Group A, both their last 32 and last 16 ties will also be played in Mexico City, with a lively home crowd and limited travel commitments set to make a difference.
Aidan Perkins
Switzerland to be eliminated at last 16 at 15/8 with bet365
Switzerland have been underrated going into previous World Cups and Euros and have often confidently made it out of the group but never quite got far enough to make people really sit up and take too much notice.
The Swiss have been eliminated at the last-16 stage in the last three World Cups, while they also exited the 2016 Euros at the round of 16.
They have enough quality in their ranks to progress similarly again – Granit Xhaka has just had an outstanding season for Sunderland, while Breel Embolo, Manuel Akanji and Denis Zakaria are among their other star men – and theirs is a squad with a nice balance of talent and experience.
Joe Casey
Qatar lowest scoring team at 12/1 with bet365
Qatar were the lowest scoring team when hosting the World Cup four years ago and this is a side who have regressed since then.
Former West Ham manager Julen Lopetegui is their fourth manager in three years but he has failed to bring about any improvements, the Maroon One have lost to Uzbekistan and Palestine recently and drew 1-1 with Syria.
Qatar mustered just two shots on target and failed to score in warm-up matches against a rotated Ireland side and El Salvador, which gives a fair summary of how much quality there is in this team.
Their group could be harder but there is a fair chance that they are the worst team at this World Cup and Lopetegui’s men look a very tempting price to be the lowest scorers.
Aaron Rogan
Austria over 5.5 total team goals at 10/11 with bet365
Austria scored 22 times in eight matches on their way to the World Cup, and being paired with Jordan and Algeria offers them a good chance to get on the scoresheet, and progress into the knockout rounds.
Ralf Rangnick’s side showed little fear as they topped a group containing France and the Netherlands at Euro 2024, scoring six goals in three group games before adding a seventh in the last 16 against Turkey.
Their intense pressing style could trouble group favourites Argentina, offering Austria the chance to clear this number before their first knockout game.
Enda McElhinney
Portugal to reach the quarter-finals @ 11/10 with bet365
Cristiano Ronaldo may be past his best but he’s still performing for last year’s Nations League winners and the supporting cast is excellent with Bruno Fernandes, Joao Neves and Bernardo Silva pulling the strings.
Group K pits them with Colombia, DR Congo and Uzbekistan – looking very winnable for Roberto Martinez’s side.
Assuming they come through the last-32 against a third place finisher there is a chance of facing Switzerland for a passage into the quarter-finals and the mouthwatering prospect of Ronaldo and Lionel Messi having one final fling in Kansas on July 11.
Henry Hardwicke
Saudi Arabia to finish bottom of Group H at 5/4 with bet365
Spain are the clear pick in Group H and Uruguay are likely to follow La Roja through to the knockout rounds.
The race to avoid finishing bottom is likely to be a straight shootout between Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia, where the market may have the wrong favourite.
The two sides will meet in the final group-stage contest and the Blue Sharks are jollies to win that Houston showdown.
Bubista’s men were excellent in the qualifiers, Saudi Arabia are beaten nearly every time they step up in class and Georgios Donis’ side will finish last in Group H.
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