27th Sept - Cubs vs Pirates

On the face of this, Sunday’s match-up might not feel like the most important one between two teams that are already postseason bound, but make no mistake about it, the action taking place at Wrigley Field is very significant.

For the Cubs, they celebrated their postseason berth, gifted to them by San Francisco’s defeat last night, but they’ll want to finish the season series against Pittsburgh with a win. They’ve got Jake Arrieta on the mound tonight, he’s looking to become the first 21-win Cubs’ pitcher in 44 years. Stats may not always be truthful, but the numbers paint a pretty nice picture of Arrieta’s performances this season. He’s turned in 18 consecutive quality starts while going 14-1 with a 0.94 ERA.

Chicago have been stifled by some good pitching in the first two games of this series. Kris Bryant has hit relatively well, but look for the likes of Starlin Castro to view this game as an opportunity against a pitcher that they’ve hit well in the past. A.J. Burnett is a solid veteran with a good record, but he’s not a Gerrit Cole or Francisco Liriano.

Burnett pitched well in his last outing, just his third since coming off the D/L for a shoulder injury. He’s also 6-1 with a 2.80 ERA in nine career starts at Wrigley Field.

Three Reasons for Betting Tips

1. Cubs’ offense will come good

This isn’t Liriano and this definitely isn’t Cole. The Cubs have a good enough offense and they’ll be happier against a pitcher with less room for error in Burnett.

2. Go against Arrieta?

Not if you’re a betting man right now…

3. Pirates’ not scoring heavily

Pittsburgh has won the previous two games in this series thanks to strong pitching, rather than brilliant pitching. They’ve got an ability to play small ball when they need to, which helps, but seven runs in two games is hardly blowing anyone away. They aren’t beating Chicago because they’re hot offensively.