AC Milan vs Spezia Predictions

• AC Milan have won four of their last five Serie A games.
• Six of the Rossoneri’s last seven victories, meanwhile, have been by more than a one-goal margin.
• Spezia have shipped 22 goals in Serie A this season, more than every team in the division except Verona (24).
• The visitors have lost all six of their away Serie A games this season, failing to score once.

Rossoneri bounce back in Europe

Milan endured a rare off day in last week’s 2-1 defeat at Torino, a result which saw the Serie A champions slip six points behind leaders Napoli, but they bounced back in style with Wednesday’s 4-0 thrashing of RB Salzburg, sealing a spot in the Champions League’s last 16. On Saturday, Stefano Pioli’s men welcome Spezia to San Siro, and the teams’ recent form suggests the Scudetto holders should be comfortable.

Indeed, last week’s loss in Turin is Milan’s only defeat in their last five league games, the other four of which have been wins. Within the last fortnight, meanwhile, Milan have scored four goals on three occasions (vs Salzburg, Dinamo Zagreb and Monza), while six of their last seven victories have come by more than a one-goal margin. With Pioli’s team averaging more than two goals per league game this term, their porous visitors look unlikely to remain competitive.

Only Verona (24) have conceded more than Spezia’s tally of 22 goals against in Serie A this season, while no Italian top-flight team has faced more shots per game on average (17.7). A run of five league games without a win has put visiting boss Luca Gotti under pressure, and their tally of 11 goals conceded across that sequence does not bode well for a meeting with Rafael Leao and company.

Milan a fine handicap play

Milan’s excellent attacking returns, coupled with Spezia’s reactive style and willingness to sit deep, means a routine home win should be expected on Saturday evening.

The Rossoneri appear an excellent play to beat a -1 handicap in this fixture, particularly given Spezia’s dire record of six straight losses, all without scoring, in away Serie A games. A 3-0 victory for the champions could therefore offer correct score value.

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