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AFC Wimbledon vs Barnsley Predictions

  • 15:00
  • Expired
  • Kingsmeadow
AFC Wimbledon

      odds when tipped

      odds when tipped

      Tip Reasoning

      Wimbledon are now without a win in three in the league, though Wally Downes’ men are likely to come into this game feeling reasonably upbeat. They earned a point away against Coventry last time out, which is not something to be sneezed at, while they’ve only lost one of their last five. They’re also unbeaten in five at home.

      When they went away to Portsmouth and lost a few weeks ago, Wimbledon were lucky to avoid a handsome beating, as they offered very little at either end of the pitch, though most teams can be forgiven for struggling to compete against the league leaders, while it must be said that the Dons delivered an improved performance last time out. Away against Coventry, they were solid at both ends. Not too many teams will come away from Ricoh Arena with a positive expected goal difference, so Wally Downes me can take plenty of confidence from how they fared last Saturday.

      What’s more, Wimbledon’s home performances have been encouraging of late. They’re now unbeaten in four at Kingsmeadow, two of which they’ve won, while they’ve bettered their opponents in terms of expected goals in each of those four. The fact that the Dons have conceded no more than 0.99 expected goals in any of their previous four at home shows that they’re tough to create against, while only once have they dipped below 1.46 expected goals for during that time, which is also positive. Barnsley are no easy team to face, but such numbers bode well for the hosts.

      Barnsley did win well last weekend, but that was at home. The Tykes are no mugs wherever they play, but their efforts on the road have been less impressive and it’s already been proven that they can be got at when playing away from the comforts of home. The likes of Wycombe, Shrewsbury, Charlton and Coventry, at least three of whom stood firm and used the counter to good effect, have all got the better of Barnsley at home, so there’s hope for the hosts.

      Just one goal in their last three travelling matches doesn’t bode too well for the Tykes, especially ahead of a match against a Wimbledon side that can certainly keep things tight. The visitors don’t give much away defensively, as the fact that they’ve conceded just 1.09 expected goals on average, but they’ve not always been amazing going forward away from home, particularly against teams that get men behind the ball and are tough to pass.

      Ahead of a match where neither team is likely to give too much away, it may just pay to side with the hosts, who look too big in the betting. The Dons have proved that they can frustrate teams at home, while Barnsley have tended to struggle a tad against defensively astute sides like Wimbledon. Make no mistake about it, the Tykes have the quality to go away and beat anyone at this division, but their overall travelling efforts haven’t been impressive enough to warrant such a short price, while the hosts have done more than enough at home to be given more respect, even against a good side like Barnsley.

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