AFC Wimbledon vs Luton Town Predictions

After five defeats on the spin, Wimbledon find themselves in trouble, though they’ve not been overly poor during that time. It’s fair to say that luck hasn’t gone their way, but they’ve also struggled thanks to a lack of end-product, which is something that they’ll be hoping to address when welcoming an in-form Luton side to Kingsmeadow on Saturday afternoon.

On the balance of play, Wimbledon were very, very unlucky to lose in Bristol on Tuesday evening, as they outplayed their hosts. Ardley’s men created the better scoring opportunities, though they simply couldn’t get the ball in the net. From a performance point of view, it’s easy to feel upbeat about what the Dons did in that game, while they’ve often played well at home, but their lack of end-product does not bode well ahead of a match against a very strong Luton side.

On paper, it looks like Wimbledon have played terribly at Kingsmeadow this season. They’ve accumulated just four points, have scored seven and have conceded 12. However, as the underlying stats suggests, they’ve not been as poor as the bare figures would have us believe. They’re averaging a respectable 1.54 expected goals going forward, while they’re conceding 1.37 at the other end. Those stats aren’t amazing, but they do support the notion that the Dons have been unfortunate.

As for Luton, well, the Hatters have looked useful on their travels of late, though they’ve not always been at their best when playing away from the comforts of home. Nathan Jones’ men have won just one of their seven away games, while they’ve kept just one clean sheet on the road, so there’s certainly hope for the hosts.

From a performance point of view, Luton have done slightly better on their travels than the bare figures let on, though they’ve not done well enough to suggest that they’ll win this match easily.

When it comes to getting forward and making things happen, Luton have usually been effective on the road; they’ve scored in five of their seven away games, while they’ve notched four in their last two. An average of 1.6 expected goals for also tells us that they’ve got what it takes to make their presence felt in the final third, though their defensive efforts have been far from flawless. They’ve kept just one clean sheet, while they’re also giving away an average of 1.34 expected goals.

If we consider both the home performances of Wimbledon and the away performances of Luton, then it’s easy to conclude that the visitors are a tad short in the betting. At the prices, the bet that stands out is ‘Both Teams to Score’. Wimbledon are due a goal, while they’ve usually done enough to get one at home, while Luton have made light work of scoring in recent times, even on their travels.