Atletico Madrid vs Malaga Predictions & Betting Tips, Match Previews

Atletico Madrid come into this match looking to bounce back from a disappointing 1-0 defeat at Sevilla last time out. They may have hit 7 in their last home game against a fairly hopeless Granada defence but they will find Malaga a much tougher nut to crack and this is the sort of match where they sometimes have problems, up against a team that is likely to park the bus and is organised enough to keep their shape for 90 minutes.

That will surely be Malaga’s approach and Juande Ramos isn’t known for being particularly adventurous at the best of times. He seems to be having a positive effect on Malaga though and they’ve taken 10 points from their last 5 league matches coming into this. Defensively they’ve been reasonably solid and that was very much their forte last season. They’ve conceded 1.11 goals per game on average in La Liga this season and haven’t conceded more than once in any of their last 6 games.

75% of Malaga’s away games and 56% of their matches overall have featured under 2.5 goals and up against the best defence in the league, there is certainly a good chance this will be a low-scoring game. Although Atleti have been a bit better in the final third at times, 67% of their matches have still featured under 2.5 goals, so the narrow wins to nil which have been their trademark in recent times are still serving them well. 5 of their last 6 matches in all competitions have ended with 1-0 or 2-0 scorelines and there is every chance that will be the case again here.

With Atleti conceding just 0.44 goals per game on average in La Liga so far, it’s very hard to see Malaga grabbing a goal in this one. The side from the capital have conceded just twice in their last 11 at home in all competitions, so another home clean sheet looks likely but Malaga are strong enough at the back to prevent Atleti scoring 3 goals. So there looks to be value in backing Under 2.5 Goals at 17/20 here.