AZ Alkmaar vs Gil Vicente Predictions

• Fewer than three goals have been scored in four of AZ’s last six home Europa League matches.
• Fewer than three goals have been scored in seven of Gil Vicente’s last 13 away games in all competitions.
• AZ have recorded three 1-0 wins at home in this competition in the last six games.

Not usually that easy to find goals with AZ 

AZ’s eye-catching win over Dundee United last week is unlikely to be repeated when Gil Vicente arrive for Thursday’s Conference League play-off round clash at AFAS Stadion. While the Dutch team were clearly a class above the Tangerines in going five goals up before the break and cruising to a 7-0 win, high-scoring matches are not usually their thing in Europe.

Fewer than three goals have been scored in four of AZ’s last six home European matches, five of which came with clean sheets. Gil Vicente arrive on the back of a 4-0 home romp over Riga, although the Latvians weren’t without opportunities in the game.

Rooster coach Ivo Vieira was done no favours when his team were again made to play on Monday, reducing the amount of available rest and preparation time for this crucial clash.

Vieira’s side will play with caution

He selected 10 of the 11 starters from the Riga win for a trip to Arouca and saw his side lose 1-0. Although Gil Vicente’s final four away games of 2021-22 all saw at least three goals scored, the general pattern for them last season was for under 2.5 goals to land on their travels.

Back-to-back under 2.5 goals games for them on the road so far this season strengthen our belief that Thursday’s game will be short on goalmouth incident. Gil Vicente will want to keep the tie within their reach for the return leg and are likely to play with caution while AZ simply cannot expect to slice open these opponents as easily as they did Dundee United.

A 1-0 home win is taken in correct score betting – which would match three of AZ’s six home results in this competition to date.