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Besiktas vs Galatasaray Predictions

  • 17:00
  • Expired
  • Vodafone Arena

odds when tipped

odds when tipped

Tip Reasoning

It’s not exactly been a vintage season fork Besiktas, who are yet to really click into top gear in the Turkish top flight. Despite having some very talented individuals in the likes of Ryan Babel, Adem Ljajic and of course the mercurial Ricardo Quaresma, they’ve not been able to do the business as a team on a regular basis. That said, Sunday’s hosts have won each of their last two games, scoring seven goals in the process, so perhaps momentum is starting to build.

Aside from their recent upturn in fortunes, Besiktas have performed reasonably well on their own patch this season. They were beaten by Sivasspor last time out, but that was a rare slip-up, not just in terms of the result but in terms of how they played. On that occasion, Şenol Güneş were outplayed, but that doesn’t often happen at Vodafone Park, as their average expected goal difference of +1.37 suggests.

In the final third is where the hosts tend to thrive; they’ve scored a very respectable 13 goals in six home matches, while they’re averaging an impressive 2.44 expected goals for. However, defending is often a problem, as the fact that they’ve kept just one clean sheet in six home games tells us.

While Besiktas have ticked along nicely at home, the visitors have struggled to be at their best away from home. Galatasaray have won three of their six away games, but they’ve lost each of the other three, while they’re found it tough to really impose themselves from a forward point of view, failing to score in exactly half of their travelling matches.

If we look at the underlying figures posted by Galatasaray on the road, then it’s easy to see them coming up short against Besiktas at Vodafone Arena. Sunday’s visitors are averaging just 1.36 expected goals for on their travels, which is a far cry from the 2.44 averaged by Besiktas at home. Defensively, with an average of 1.19 against, they’re certainly not giving too much more away, but unless they improve offensively, the visitors could struggle.

From an attacking point of view, Besiktas have been very strong on their own patch and it is that attacking strength that can make the difference on Sunday. Galatasaray are certainly a useful side on their day, but their away performances this season don’t exactly suggest that they can go to Vodafone Arena and outscore the second most creative side in the division, according to the expected goals for table. With an average of 2.44 expected goals for at home, ‘Besiktas to Win & Over 1.5 Goals’ gets the nod.

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