Blackpool vs Burton Albion Predictions

Blackpool’s star has risen over the last few weeks, as Terry McPhillips men continue to impress in League One. They’ve been delivering promising performances all season long, though having won each of their last three league games, people may just start to consider the Seasiders as possible top-six contenders. Having won on the road last time out, the hosts will come into this match full of confidence.

Saturday’s hosts have now won each of their last three league matches, while they’re lost just twice all season. When Gary Bowyer left at the start of campaign, there must have been considerable doubts from the Bloomfield Road faithful, though Terry McPhillips has come in and carried on the pleasing work that Bowyer had been doing. As was the case last season, the Seasiders are tough to get the better of, while they’ve now added that touch of quality in the final third.

When playing on their own patch, performances have been very favourable. As things stand, league leaders Portsmouth and Bristol Rovers are the only teams to go to Bloomfield road and take all three points, while McPhillips men have recorded pleasing results against strong teams such as Coventry, Accrington and Luton. Furthermore, the Seasiders are averaging an attractive 1.83 expected goals for at home, while they’re giving up 1.35 at the other end.

Burton haven’t impressed as much as Blackpool, mainly because they’re far less secure at the back. At times, Nigel Clough’s men have looked very useful with the ball, while they’ve certainly hurt teams, even when playing away from, as their excellent average of 1.72 expected goals suggests. However, their efforts at the back have often hampered their ability to get results, especially on their travels.

The visitors have scored a pleasing 12 goals in eight away matches, scoring in all but one of those, though such numbers pale into insignificance when they’ve conceded 15 at the other end and are without a clean sheet. Add in the fact that they’ve surrendered an average of 2.06 expected goals when playing on the road and it’s easy to see why Clough’s men have only won two away matches during the current campaign. Such defensive number also make it easy to fancy the hosts ahead of this clash.

Burton are useful going forward so they cannot be dismissed, though they’ve simply not done enough at the back to merit being considered narrow outsiders on the road. With an average expected goal difference of +0.48 at home, the hosts, who’ve given up less expected goals than all but two teams in League One this season, appear to have been underestimated a tad by the early market and are thus worth supporting to beat a visiting team that boast an average expected goal difference of -0.36 on the road.