Bristol Rovers vs Burton Albion Predictions

Just a few short weeks ago, Bristol Rovers were in disarray; their manager was out the door, they couldn’t find the net and were finding it almost impossible to collect points. Fast forward a fortnight and the Pirates find themselves going into the new year off the back of three straight wins. Having overseen clear improvements, Graham Coughlan may be hoping that he gets the job on a permanent basis.

Improvement didn’t appear to be forthcoming when Bristol Rovers parted company with their previous manager, so credit must go to the man who has taken control since. It’s important not to get too carried away, but if Rovers, who’ve never looked too bad at the back, can continue to score goals, then there’s no reason as to why they cannot steer themselves to safety.

Their last two performances haven’t been great at all, but the fact that they’ve remained competitive and have been clinical has been impressive. However, to get the better of a useful Burton side, Rovers may need to create more in the final third. The fact that they ended the match having accumulated just 1.0 expected goals suggests that Coughlan’s men were fortunate to score three away against Walsall on Boxing Day, while given that they recorded just 0.33 expected goals for against Oxford on Saturday, they were once again a tad fortunate.

In contrast, Burton have been creating plenty of late. They failed to find the winner against Plymouth on Saturday, but they still posted 1.43 expected goals for, which is more than Bristol Rovers have mustered in each of their last four (against teams with 11 players on the pitch). What’s more, they created a very pleasing 2.35 when scoring three goals against Wycombe on Boxing Day.

The problem for the visitors is that they often give too much away on their travels. Luton made light work of scoring twice against the Brewers in their most recent away match, while Tuesday’s visitors are still without a clean sheet on their travels this season. What’s more, Nigel Clough’s men are currently surrendering an average of 1.72 expected goals. Such a figure tells us that teams haven’t exactly found it tough to create against Burton.

From a betting point of view, ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ catches the eye. Burton have offered a threat on their travels, but they’ve also given a lot away. Bristol Rovers are far from prolific, despite what recent form suggests, though they’ve not been too bad at creating on their own patch, as their average of 1.54 expected goals for suggests, while they ought to be aided by a leaky visiting rear-guard.