Burton Albion vs Gillingham Predictions

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  • Sun 9 Feb
Burton Albion

Burton Albion to Win

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Burton Albion 1-0

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Tip Reasoning

  • Gillingham are one of only five teams to have scored less than ten travelling goals in League 1 this season.
  • Burton are one of only two teams to have conceded less than ten goals at home in League 1 this season.
  • Burton have won four of their last five at home and have lost just one of their last 11 at Pirelli Stadium.

Brewers tough to beat at home

Burton may not be in the immediate play-off picture, but given their recent efforts, the Brewers are not to be disregarded in that respect. Under the careful stewardship of Nigel Clough, Saturday’s hosts have crept into the top half and are now just six points shy of the coveted top six.

They were beaten last time out, but Burton can be forgiven for losing narrowly away against the side that currently tops League 1. Plenty of teams will go to New York Stadium and do far worse than the Brewers, while several won’t be able to match Burton’s feat of scoring twice.

Over the last few months, Clough’s men have made Pirelli Stadium something of a fortress. They’re unbeaten in five at home, have lost just one of their last 11 and have won four of their last five. Without being overly flamboyant, Burton can score goals, notching in each of their last five, scoring a total of ten, though it is the way in which the Brewers restrict teams that is impressive. No team in the league has conceded fewer home goals than Burton, who’ve conceded just nine goals at home this term. Saturday’s hosts rank highly when it comes to shots on target conceded at home too.

Gills ticking along

Burton aren’t the only team making forward strides, as Gillingham are moving in the right direction thanks to an unbeaten run that stretches back to the first week in December. In the two months since, the Gills have won four and drawn six of their ten matches. They’re not prolific in terms of picking up maximum points, but Gillingham have become increasingly tough to beat under Steve Evans.

One aspect of Gillingham’s game that is displeasing is their lack of goals on the road. Gillingham have scored only nine travelling goals this term, giving them an average of just 0.69. Such a number looks particularly poor when put next to an average of 1.00 against. Saturday’s visitors may have avoided defeat in each of their last four on the road, but they’ve won none of those four, while they’re now without an away win in five. They’ve won just once away from home all season.

Visitors’ unbeaten run to come to an end

Both Burton and Gillingham are tough to beat, though at the prices, it is the hosts that stand out in the betting. The fact that Burton have done an excellent job of restricting teams at home bodes very well ahead of a match against a visiting side that has found goals hard to come by on the road. Not only do the Gills average 0.69 goals for away from home, but they’ve scored in just two of their last five travelling matches. In addition to defending well at Pirelli Stadium, the Brewers done a much better job of both scoring goals and getting three points at home than Gillingham have done on the road of late.

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